so is SE FL finally off the hook

[boca]

I said 4 days ago this was a Carolina storm not South FL. Here it comes to save the day a trough from what I'm hearing from various posters.This was never a serious threat.

[rbaker]

there is no way I would write frances off anywhere in the us esp so fla

[soonertwister]

Not a chance!

[Windtalker]

don't let your guard down!!

[wx247]

I said 4 days ago this was a Carolina storm not South FL. Here it comes to save the day a trough from what I'm hearing from various posters.This was never a serious threat.

Bad idea to write it off...

[das8929]

Not really.........
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2053W5.gif

[das8929]

Not really.........
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2053W5.gif

[Windtalker]

Computer went WACKY

[lilbump3000]

I say as long as you are in that cone area you are not off the hook. See people only look at that line in the middle and assume the strom is going to take that track. Thats what happened with Charley with the people in flordia, there were following the line in the middle and thinking they were ok, but they were still in that cone. So as long as you in there you need to be on the look out.

[HollynLA]

Never a serious threat? Am I missing something here? If anything, I think the track will be shifting more westward in the next 24 hours. With a cat 4 storm out there, NO ONE should be told to let their guard down.

[das8929]

Ahh sorry my computer was being weird so I clicked too many times and now it wont let me delete them .

[tdess02]

I cant believe people are looking at each model run and forecast track and either putting a certain area in the "panic mode" or dismissing the threat in other areas. I have been tracking hurricanes for over 20 years, and I would not dismiss any area from Miami on Northward as a possible hit. The models will continue to change on every run and the histeria seems to flucuate with with run. Even though the NHC has improved the forecasting greatly over the years, it is still not an exact science.
One thing is for sure, Francis IS going to slam into the US. At this time it still looks like Florida., but even that could change with the movement and strength of the storm changing. If I lived in Florida, I would be making preparations now!

[vbhoutex]

That's what mods are for. I mean to help with little problems like that. It is done.

[Opal storm]

Ha,we are anything but off the hook

[Ground_Zero_92]

Florida is definately not off the hook. Stay alert, be prepared, and don't look at individual model runs.

[btsgmdad]

Everyone along the Atlantic and Gulf coast should continue to monitor this.

[vbhoutex]

Everyone along the Atlantic and Gulf coast should continue to monitor this.

And be sure their hurricane kits are restocked and ready as well as being sure they are ready to prepare the homestead if need be.

[Aquawind]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

VALID 12Z WED SEP 01 2004 - 12Z SUN SEP 05 2004

FINAL MODEL DISCUSSION...


MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BUCKLING OF THE SEMIZONAL
THE WESTERLIES AS ENERGY DROPS SEWD DOWN THE B.C. COAST CARVING
OUT A WRN TROF WITH DOWNSTREAM HT RISE OVER ERN CONUS WITH A
BUILDING W ATCL RIDGE. THIS RIDGING ALLOWS OFFSHORE VERY STRONG
HURCN FRANCES TO AFFECT THE FL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST OR GULF
COAST STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE ALL MODEL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPING NWRN CONUS TROF A GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS PREFFERED TDA.


XPCT T.S. GASTON TO BECOME EXTRATROP BY THE MEDR PD AND BE MOVING
OUT OF THE PICTURE OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON DAY 3/WED.

MODELS CONT TO HAVE TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE TRACK OF HRCN
FRANCES IN THE MEDR. ONE GROUPING WWD THRU S FL (00Z/06Z
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET) OR CURVE THE SYS NWD IN THE BAHAMAS AND STEAR THE
SYS MORE NWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS (00Z/12Z NOGAPS/00Z/12Z
CANADIAN/GFDL/DGEX/12Z GFS) THE LATEST NHC FORECAST A BIT
NORTHWARD OF THE SRN GROUP ...BUT SIMILAR WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF
THE TRACK BUT REMAINING LEFT OF THE CANADIAN/NOGAPS/GFDL/DGEX.
DAYS 6/SAT AND 7/SUN... HPC FOLLOWING AN EXTRAPOLATED NHC TRACK
INTO SRN FL AND THEN NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL EXITING BACK INTO THE
EASTERN GLFMEX AS RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND VERY
POWERFUL HURCN CREATES ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF ITS
TRACK. SEE NHC ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.

...FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST...
ALL EYES WILL BE UPON HURCN FRANCES FORECAST TO BE A CAT 4
HURRICANE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SRN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BE IMPACTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS LONGER RANGE
ERRORS ARE GREAT AND WITH A CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT GROUPING OF
SOME MODELS WITH A MORE ERN TRACK THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
REMAINS UNDER A THREAT OF THIS HURCN. SEE NHC
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS.
ROSENSTEIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

[Miamuh]

I'm sure no expert, but born and raised in S. Fl. and we never, ever wrote anything off until it was far north of us.. and even then, look at Betsy in 1965.. She got up the coast and turned her little self around and came back and hit Miami..No way am I ready to write Frances off ..(although I'd sure like to)

[abacorun]

What I do not understand is that the position at the 5pm map, for the 120hr, is the same as the 11am, right over Harbour Island, Bahamas. Is this a sign of uncertainity.