Why is Frances moving W to WSW now?

[Ola]

You know Derecho, I respect your meterological abilities as well as many others on this board but, lets call it like it is, a chicken is a chicken, same as a duck is a duck, now any reasonably intelligent individual can see a complete westward motion, dominating any gain in latitude. Watch the loop for yourself. Its this type of denial that caught S. Florida with their pants down with Charley.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If you average this loop out, you get due westward motion overall.

Brian

Movement bearings are calculated with something like 6 hour averages. A loop is not a 6 hour loop. If you could pick any time interval to calculate bearing you could have a diferent movement for a system every 30 minutes. In order for forecast and analisys to make sense and be valid you need consistency, and I mean use the same measuring parameters all the time so data can be compared.

This loop is over 5 hrs in length, what are you talking about?

Brian

Oh.

I was too lazy to click on the link and see what loops it was. Well t has been moving about 275 I guess but not the 6 hours prior to the advisory and that is what Derecho refered to. Gaining .2 from 11am to 5pm. Still valid poiont you make.

[Guest]

lol, ok I got your back.....

Point is, looping imagery over 5 hours can give you a start and stop point to average movement. We should all know by now, hurricanes, especially of this magnitude stairstep along. I think what most of us are pointing out is that there has been a significant westward motion. Now whether that has personal ego implications for some or has posed a realty check for some, whatever, I say call it like it is! I dont discount Derecho on his observations and have been following his forecast and think he is doing a great job, because believe me I'll be the first to read his post, and usually learn from him as I go.

Brian

[Guest]

Can we say sw jog and more of a wsw path towards the islands

Are any models forcasting such a path?

[dhweather]

The overall trend appears just about due west, there is a little jogging going on, but that is to be expected folks.