8 Pm=Cat 3 125 mph

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 20a


Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 29, 2004



...Powerfull Hurricane Frances continues on a slow westward track...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the following Leeward
Islands...saint maarten....Anguilla...Barbuda...and Antigua. The
tropical storm watch may be extended to the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands later tonight.

Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances.

At 8 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 55.8 west or about 480
miles... 772 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Frances is moving toward the west near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. This
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours

measurements from a U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...204 km/hr
...With higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles... 140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...204 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by aircraft was 954
mb...28.17 inches.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...18.8 N... 55.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Lawrence

[dixiebreeze]

Luis, will PR be spared? Thoughts?

[cycloneye]

Now the wind profile has expanded a bit now tropical storm force winds 125 miles and hurricane force winds 85 miles.That may be problematic if it stays moving west to westnorthwest.