Frances Advisories

[B-Bear]

Derek,

I can't tell if she's been going through an eyewall recycling period or not. What's your take?

[ncweatherwizard]

Northern Florida also possibly in the mix...but still relax everybody...we've got 6 days to think about this...I think the way I meant this was misinterpreted earlier in...but anyhow...my regrets.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

Audio will come out in about 20 minutes to clarify the written version (I'm tired as crap now, so it's easier to talk than write.)

[Derek Ortt]

This may be an eye wall cycle

also, graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

also, this is not good if it goes through the straits, that will only wipe the keys clean and devestate a portion of the Gulf Coast

[HeatherAKC]

I waited the 5-10 minutes to see your graphics and you know what? I don't like them one bit. Change them. Now. Thanks!

[B-Bear]

This may be an eye wall cycle

also, graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

also, this is not good if it goes through the straits, that will only wipe the keys clean and devestate a portion of the Gulf Coast

With lots and lots of very warm water to feed off of. I saw buoy reports in the Gulf--water is around 90 degrees in some places. Atmosphere in the Gulf is more moist too, isn't it?

[Aquawind]

Ugly Track..

[B-Bear]

Derek,

You might want to think about revising this track. This is the track I was most afraid of happening. Would you consider rethinking it?

[mb229]

Thanks for the forecast. I am happy to see my homeboy turning Frances away from NC. Get some rest now if you can.

[Brent]

YIKES!!!!

But I agree.

[EDR1222]

Worst thing about that track is even if it does make a Northwesterly turn at the end it is too late for the Florida east coast. Looks like a landfall or right along the coast.

Not good!

[ncweatherwizard]

Audio now available here (3.6Mb):

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... esoff2.wav

Or click link to the forecast and scroll to bottom and click link.

[goodlife]

Well..I surely don't like it..because that pretty much will have it coming into the gulf after that...
UH UH...I don't want to see that AT ALL!

[Guest]

Does NHC take that NASA model into account & do you think that their forecast track going to shift left similar to yours.

[Anonymous]

WOW...another poster coming around to the fact, a most likely Florida landfall, is still the most real possibility. Even after all the hype about, it's going to the Carolina's...etc., blah..blah.

THE OVERALL PROJECTED PATH HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT!

Now...does a more NW movement show up at the end of the 3 day forecast? Yes, but even at that, if one would project a landfall, subsequent to that (5 days), it still would be Florida!

All the people that have said Florida is safe, or is in some way looking better, are dead wrong! Florida is, and will be under the gun, until some dramatic forecast track change takes place, when the storm is within 72hrs. of landfall.

When that MAY take place, Floridians better be ready.

No offense wizard, but I continue to disagree with your post about an initial landfall outside of Florida. AND my beliefs are based on what I see from the mets. on here and the NHC. Not from some sort of calculated formula, projected mathematical path.

[lilbump3000]

I suspect tonight will all the new model data coming in and all that that the track will be shifted back to left like it was before all this NW trend started.

[bahamaswx]

If he wants to forecast GA/SC, let him.

[SouthernWx]

This is my latest (9 p.m. EDT) analysis and forecast track of hurricane Frances for the next 168 hours (7 days)...a very close call for the Leewards, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...and a direct hit on the Turks & Caicos Islands, Bahamas, and southern Florida:

Analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000 ... myThoughts

Forecast Track:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

[lilbump3000]

Im not saying nothing about his forecast. I can care less on were his forecast are all them other people that forecast on here have the system going. It all comes down to what the NHC says.

[caneman]

If he wants to forecast GA/SC, let him.

Indeed, I believe the boat has been missed here. I just saw TWC graphics and I don't see any front, trough, what have you that is anywhere near picking up Frances By the beginning of next weekend.

[Derek Ortt]

Since it is a research model, I am not sure if they are using it or not. Also, there has only been one run per day at 0Z the past few days.

this forecast is in more agreement with NHC as I had been a little farther to the right of them in recent days