Frances Advisories

[quickychick]

Striking Florida was what was being reported by Jeraldo

And what an impressive track record HE has. Hoffa's vault indeed.

[Dean4Storms]

HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z MON AUG 30 2004

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA
...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND
SABA. ST MARTIN AND ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH
AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 56.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 75NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 25SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 56.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.0N 63.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.8N 66.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 56.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

[Jersey storm]

Jeraldo did say that,but after that the fox forcaster said what I said it still to early to say where frances is going to strike yet

[lilbump3000]

[stormchazer]

I was simply writing what I saw on the screen. Striking Florida was what was being reported by Jeraldo and how much devastation all the debris from Charlie could cause.

Its cool...I hope no one is beating on you in here. All the news organizations love the hype.

[bbadon]

Oh sorry missed that part.

[AL Chili Pepper]

It does seem like it's picked up some speed over the last 6 hours, with no northern component during that time. Could that mean that the ridge has strengthened to the north? Not good news for Puerta Rico.

[HouTXmetro]

Well if it's coming from Faux new Florida has nothing to worry about.

[HouTXmetro]

* Double post

[stormchazer]

Maybe FL will duck this one....it could be Floyd again.

[bbadon]

Oh sorry missed that part.

[Pileus]

Jeraldo was prolly drawing Frances' forecast track in the sand too.

[storm4u]

I have a feeling this is not a Florida storm but what do i kno!

[quickychick]

bump for 11 pm advisory

[ga_ben]

Any ideas behind their thinking on this? I thought there would be very little to inhibit her growing stronger.

[caneman]

IT will waver North and South many times in the next several days.

[Lutrastorm]

That's potentially devastating to the Bahamas..., like Floyd it goes up the spine of Eleuthera and the Abacos. Neither island needs this, they've finally just begun to recover economically from both Floyd (recently) and Andrew (Eleuthera took a direct hit before US landfall) over the long term.. Both of these islands are targets for growth and redevelopment by the government....

[flyingphish]

Maybe FL. and the US too. Big trough coming in from the Pacific Maritimes and more after that. Weather is in transition for Fall and that does not farewell for storms 'Way" out East of the US continent. (if you are looking for landfall..I mean.) Just speculation..who knows ? Hopefully Frances will stay at sea.

[Vortex]

This short range model did quite well with charley. I'm not sure if the 00z data was incorporated into this model but the trend is further west and a bit faster implying a landfall over south florida as strong ridging remains well in tact to the north at H-84.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Weather4Life23]

In the discussion for 11pm it does say that intensity is still uncertain and forecasting intensity is still a big challenge.