Frances Advisories

[AtlanticWind]

In a 5 day forecast, the margin of error is just to large <at least 300 miles> Look for the cone , these will determine where hurricane warnings will be issued.

[Burn1]

Looks like a Garbage Pit of activity over Bahamas Northward.....Like stated before this is the weakness that should be left behind to lift Frances out.

[ga_ben]

Yeah I saw that. I think she is definitely going to fluctuate in intensity.

[btangy]

It doesn't mean Frances will maintain that intensity throughout. Rather, persistence will probably have less error than anything the NHC can think up. That's how little skill we actually have in forecasting intensity. Lots of research still to be done.

[NFLnut]

I have a feeling too ..

Oh who am I kidding! I have a dream!! A guy can dream can't he?!!

Sorry Carolinas/GA .. I have two large holes in my roof from Charley and went without water and electricity for a week up to just days ago. There are still piles of trees and debris piled for a quarter-mile on both sides of the main street into my neighborhood and we are told they will be there for up to 4-6 weeks.

Even a Cat 1 storm will blow my tarps off (they blew off in my daily t-storm today) and I have MAJOR water damage throughout my house. I am one of thousands in cntral FL who have the same problem. Some are worse than me. I am a fourth-generation Floridian, and I've been through many Hurricanes, but we can't physically or emotionally take a big hit this soon again! I can't even imagine what it would be like for those in Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte.

[Anonymous]

In a 5 day forecast, the margin of error is just to large <at least 300 miles> Look for the cone , these will determine where hurricane warnings will be issued.

Agree, at this point, If the NHC had to issue a hurricane watch, It would be from Tarpon Springs to the Keys and up the East Coast to Jacksonville

[btsgmdad]

Or maybe they're trying to play down intensity so as not to incite panic and hysteria.

[frankthetank]

huh?

[flyingphish]

You make great point Burn 1 and I concur. Big trough heading down too. Glad too have some company round here.(anti- crisis crowd pretty thin ) Burn 1 for me too..LOL.

[btangy]

Usually don't look at the ETA for hurricane forecasting, but since (and I assume) the gulfstream jet data was included, it's interesting to see what changes to the upper level pattern took place. There is a subtle but perhaps important change from the 18Z 06hr prog and the init for the 00Z. That being the ridge is stronger in both 500mb geopotential heights and extent of the ridge. Whether this can be attributed to the added data is hard to say. But, if it is, then a similar pattern should show up in the rest of the global models.

For what it's worth, the ETA has trended south from the 12Z to 18Z to 00Z runs with Frances. But what's that over Alabama and Mississippi? Since the ETA only goes out to 84 hours, can't say for sure whether the ETA breaks down the ridge and allows a more northward component beyond 84 hours.

[EDR1222]

The recurve that has occured so many times in the past right off the Florida coast is showing up on the NHC track.
Will it hold?

Any thoughts?

[boca]

SE FL hence the protective shield,but still too early to tell Flloyd all over again.

[NFLnut]

Being one who frequents political discussions, I find it interesting that even a forum that is devoted to the discussion of Hurricanes has its own conspiracy theorists!

[btangy]

Or maybe they're trying to play down intensity so as not to incite panic and hysteria.

Doubtful. Both SHIPS and GFDL predict weakening. I don't put much faith in intensity models, but the NHC can't predict something that is contrary to the models unless you have good reason to believe they're wrong.

[Scott_inVA]

Is there a website out there that has this info already? If so, oops

-qd

I don't usually post these but keep an eye on verifications mostly so I know how models are trending in relation to TPC/NHC.

The link below displays all Advisory tracks for Frances (those are the gray lines under the actual verified path). If you're Max Mayfield, you want the color "actual" track right down the middle of the gray lines...which essentially it is, indicating TPC has tweaked the track and has thus far done a good job.

If you're Bastardi, you want the colored line totally away from the gray lines to illustrate TPC sucks (tho he doesn't provide coordinates or positions 4X a day does he?). Sorry, not trying to start an AccuWar.

Anyway, I run this every night on TPC and each of the models. Until it's "Show Time", Maybe I can hot link a couple here if there's interest.

Click here: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/tpcmap.jpg

Hope it helps.

Scott

[chris_fit]

It'll be a cat 4 in no time, just wait 24 hours

[Burn1]

As stated in earlier posts.....Conditions have to be unbelievably right for a Cane to hit S. FL. No major metropolitan hit for 40 years now....Doesn't that say something......If you look at the dirty air over the Bahamas now tailing up to Gaston....This will leave weakness that is all to prevelant when storms approach S. FL. Lets try to pinpoint that protection mechanism over S. FL. It is real!!

[quickychick]

Scott, that's awesome. Thanks!

-qc

[B-Bear]

[quote="frankthetank"]huh?

According to Burn1 and flyingphish, Frances is going to be drawn into the wake of Gaston and the U.S. will be spared when Frances becomes a fish. Oh yeah, and it's impossible for a hurricane to hit southern Florida because of some giant tin-foil hat off the coast--or something like that.

[SouthernWx]

Based on the forecast enviroment ahead of Frances....and the oceanic heat content in and near the Bahamas and offshore the Florida east coast, I see no reason this hurricane won't reach strong cat-4 or even cat-5 intensity...

I'm not surprised there's been some weakening. In 1960, hurricane Donna also weakened in that area near and east of the northern Leewards....only to deepen to over 150 mph while passing westward north of Hispanola. Hurricane Floyd also weakened some in that area....only to explode to borderline cat-4/5 intensity before reaching the Bahamas.

Only the Lord knows which hurricanes will and won't deepen explosively or reach extreme intensity....but what I know about hurricanes tells me there is potential for Frances to become an extremely dangerous hurricane before reaching the Bahamas in 3-4 days (and Florida by late Friday or Saturday).