Frances Advisories

logybogy · #2241 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:15 am

The last frame on the visible shows a cease of the northern wobble we saw last night and back to a southern wobble. It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Derecho · #2242 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:17 am

It wasn't a northern wobble last night. It was consistent N of due W movment.

Frances gained almost half a degree of latitude overnight.

#2243 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:20 am

30/1145 UTC 35.8N 71.6W T3.0/3.0 HERMINE -- Atlantic Ocean
30/1145 UTC 19.2N 57.9W T5.5/5.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

logybogy · #2244 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:20 am

Well that north of due west movement has stopped. And that half of degree of latitude gained could be gone if this southerly trend continues.

Hurricanes do not move in straight lines. They wobble up and down. The 12 hour track average is what is important.

Derek Ortt · #2245 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:22 am

not a surprise at all

Derecho · #2246 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:26 am

logybogy wrote:Well that north of due west movement has stopped. And that half of degree of latitude gained could be gone if this southerly trend continues.

Hurricanes do not move in straight lines. They wobble up and down. The 12 hour track average is what is important.

ROFL...

Of course. The 12 hour average is what is important.

The problem was the satellite hallucinators of yesterday posting on every due W or SW wobble, ignoring all the NW wobbles, who managed to convince themselves that Frances spent the entire day moving due West when it gained latitude all day.

Why is every W or WSW wobble true "movement" but any time it's N of due W it's a "wobble?"

Your "southerly trend" is one 1/2 hour frame that might have S of due W movement.

The N of due W movement preceding it lasted a good 12 hours.

The odds are that the S of due W is the wobble, and the N of due W is the movement, don't you think?

the 8AM position is actually NORTH of the NHC forecast track.

B-Bear · #2247 Postby **B-Bear** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:31 am

Derecho,

Although I haven't broken out my protractor yet, I'm looking at this morning's satelite imagery and I just don't see what you're referring to with north movement last night. It's still south of 20, and appears to be just about the same place it was when I last looked at it last night. It appears to be heading due west to me.

#2248 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:34 am

TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040830 1200 040831 0000 040831 1200 040901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 58.1W 19.7N 60.5W 20.3N 63.2W 21.0N 66.0W
BAMM 19.2N 58.1W 19.3N 60.5W 19.6N 63.0W 20.1N 65.5W
A98E 19.2N 58.1W 19.5N 60.6W 20.1N 63.2W 21.0N 65.8W
LBAR 19.2N 58.1W 19.5N 60.6W 20.0N 63.4W 20.4N 66.2W
SHIP 105KTS 104KTS 107KTS 110KTS
DSHP 105KTS 104KTS 107KTS 110KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040901 1200 040902 1200 040903 1200 040904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 68.6W 23.7N 72.9W 25.2N 75.4W 26.6N 77.0W
BAMM 20.9N 67.8W 23.1N 71.5W 25.5N 74.4W 27.4N 77.3W
A98E 22.0N 68.6W 24.1N 73.3W 25.8N 76.6W 26.9N 79.2W
LBAR 21.0N 68.9W 22.5N 73.5W 24.6N 76.2W 26.7N 78.1W
SHIP 113KTS 113KTS 109KTS 100KTS
DSHP 113KTS 113KTS 109KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 58.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 55.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 54.4W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 956MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 110NM

Thunder44 · #2249 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:34 am

30/1200 UTC 15.4N 19.9W T1.5/1.5 - 97L also has numbers.

B-Bear · #2250 Postby **B-Bear** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:35 am

Lincoln, Nebraska in the house--

Tell me what you want to hear.

#2251 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:35 am

Yes almost a TD.

#2252 Postby **feederband** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:38 am

Look it will eventually go nw but when it stays w or wobbles any sw thats when the tracks start to get scary for fl. So thats the concerns when it dipps sw or wsw.....

Doc Seminole · #2253 Postby **Doc Seminole** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:43 am

If you are seeing Frances move south..... you need to get to the eye doctor. :roll:

Derecho · #2254 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:44 am

B-Bear wrote:Derecho,

Although I haven't broken out my protractor yet, I'm looking at this morning's satelite imagery and I just don't see what you're referring to with north movement last night. It's still south of 20, and appears to be just about the same place it was when I last looked at it last night. It appears to be heading due west to me.

8PM NHC position: 18.8N

11PM NHC position: 18.9N

2AM NHC position: 19.0N

5AM NHC position: 19.0N

8AM NHC position: 19.2N

I continue to be amazed at the ability of people to see movement with a fairly clear eye, on either radar or satellite, that's at variance to reality.

B-Bear · #2255 Postby **B-Bear** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:47 am

Derecho wrote:
B-Bear wrote:Derecho,

Although I haven't broken out my protractor yet, I'm looking at this morning's satelite imagery and I just don't see what you're referring to with north movement last night. It's still south of 20, and appears to be just about the same place it was when I last looked at it last night. It appears to be heading due west to me.

8PM NHC position: 18.8N

11PM NHC position: 18.9N

2AM NHC position: 19.0N

5AM NHC position: 19.0N

8AM NHC position: 19.2N

I continue to be amazed at the ability of people to see movement with a fairly clear eye, on either radar or satellite, that's at variance to reality.

That clears it up for me. I last saw it last night around the 2 AM position, which puts the current position only .2 deg difference. That's why I'm not seeing the 1/2 degree variance you referenced. Thanks.

Anonymous · #2256 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:49 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Actually what happened, it wobbled NW then wobbled SW.

#2257 Postby **msbee** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:01 am

Derecho
yes, it is very slowly gaining in latitude and every little bit counts
we are only 8 miles from Anguilla so we will pretty much get what they get
I have a feeling we will only get tropical force winds as the update for Anguilla stated
but I am also preparing for some minimal hurricane strength winds possibly.
all of this we can handle as long as people properly prepare.

x-y-no · #2258 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:01 am

The problem for any of us trying to eyeball the direction is that the floater loop just isn't long enough. Better at this point, since we're getting intermediate updates now, to just wait for the fixes.

BonesXL · #2259 Postby **BonesXL** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:04 am

It is also begiining to pick up speed...

caneman · #2260 Postby **caneman** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:04 am

This position was from the 5AM advisory INITIAL 30/0900Z 19.0N 57.3W and this position is from the 8:00 AM advisory AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1. According to 5:00 AM advisory the system will be here in 12 hours 12HR VT - 30/1800Z 19.1N 59.2W 105 KT. At the 8:00 AM advisory they state it is moving 10 mph. This does not seem correct. Seems more like 20 mph. By 11:00 the system should already be darn near the 12 hour forecast of 59.2. that means it got there some 6 hours early. This indicates to me that the system has been moving around 15 to 20 mph. We'll see if this verifies at the 11:00 advisory. If so, this can and will change the models once agaon..

Frances Advisories

Frances wobbling southwest again

T numbers for Frances=5.5,Hermine=3.0,97L=1.5

12:00 Models for Frances=Still moving 275

Throw out the models Frances has picked up speed!

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