High vs. -removed-

[BensonTCwatcher]

I know I'm a newbie, but it occurs to me that the history of atlantic coast storms bears out that when the ridge ( as the largest steering factor) is more to the north say where it is now, the storms recurve and affect GA to NC, i.e. Hazel, Fran, Floyd, Bertha, and others. When the ridge is farther south ( say over D.C) we'll get a FL hit. I realize the trough's impact as well, but this far out generalizations and trends still have more value to me than detailed models. I am hoping for a full recurve and a worst case glance on the OBX. That seems possible, but my generator and chainsaw are gassed up and ready....

You real experienced types might see it differently, we'll know by tommorow night I guess trendwise

V/R

[rbaker]

no not really a bad observation, more than not alot of canes of this magnitude make that turn on the eastern side of the bahamas, then it becomes a nc outerbanks situation.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, I had been checking on the stats, and the high would have to drop AND remain strong enough to keep Frances south. Seems like a tall order if her speed stays where it is or slows within 36 hours.

[ericinmia]

The global models all have the high extending west to fill the gap where Gaston, and Hermine used to be.

To what extent, and stength is yet to be seen...

-Eric

[Dean4Storms]

And the CMC shows just that, ridging over the eastern CONUS extending back to the trough in the central US. This model has been very good with forecasting the strength and positions of ridging............

[BensonTCwatcher]

Thanks for the post, I'm with you Dean, I guess I see the big question is how long...Local guys here are holding thier cards till Tues night.

[Josephine96]

Now if the high extends westward.. that keeps Frances south and on a beeline for Florida, right?