frances forecast #11 60miles east of MIA Sat

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Derek Ortt

frances forecast #11 60miles east of MIA Sat

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:39 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


graphics available in 5 to 10 minutes
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#2 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:41 am

Yikes! :cry: :cry:
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#3 Postby weatherlover427 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:43 am

I don't like that 130kt at 120 hrs :eek: ...
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:45 am

Dead on Derek, see you've joined me. This is a south Florida hurricane crossing over into the eastern GOM as it rounds the ridge and gets drawn northward by the trough.

I never did buy into the slow westward track as this ridge captured Frances. We've seen all year the strength this ridge has moved these systems and I believe the eye even out ran the upper structure this morning as it accelerated. I would not be surprised to see some forward movement between 15-20mph over the next couple days.
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:48 am

Wow ... all the way to 66W before she crosses 20N ...

That would be ominous.

No ill feeling towards you, but here's hoping you're too far south with this. :-/
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:52 am

This will NOT cross Florida on this track. This ends at 5 days. If I had to extend, a turn to the NNW would have been shown. This is an EC event, not GOM the way things are looking now. One should not extrapolate these forecasts beyond 5 days
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:52 am

graphics now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html
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#8 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:55 am

good forecast Derek Ortt,I feel that's most likely to happen like you say I'm afraid.
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EC Event

#9 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:03 am

Derek Ortt wrote:This will NOT cross Florida on this track. This ends at 5 days. If I had to extend, a turn to the NNW would have been shown. This is an EC event, not GOM the way things are looking now. One should not extrapolate these forecasts beyond 5 days


An "East Coast Event" that sounds like
the premier of a new movie or something.
But anyway, I still believe making a prediction
5 days or more out is like throwing darts blindfolded,
sometimes you will hit the board but most times
you won't. Thanks for the post and prediction.
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Guest

#10 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:05 am

Hey Derek.. If & thats a big if, all 5 day forecasts are subject to errors but if this hurricane is close to where you put it in 5 days Miami would experience some very rough weather??
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Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:06 am

Unfortunately, I need to make a call soon for the University.
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Derek Ortt

#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:07 am

miami would get hurricane force winds, but probably not the eye wall on that track
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#13 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:09 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Unfortunately, I need to make a call soon for the University.


Better to error on the side of caution!!
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#14 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:11 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Unfortunately, I need to make a call soon for the University.


So you mean if the game is postponed, we have you to blame? :grr: :grr:

Edit: Just kidding of course. I'm sure you'll do whatever is best.
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#15 Postby Stephanie » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:39 am

GEEZ Derek! The Bahamas look like they're going to be wiped out if it goes back to a cat 4! They really won't have much of an affect on France's intensity as well.
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Derek...

#16 Postby LilNoles2004 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:43 am

Derek, do you have any imput as to if the game should be played? If you don't think that Miami should hold the game this weekend, suggest moving the game to Tallahassee ;) ....
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Re: Derek...

#17 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 am

LilNoles2004 wrote:Derek, do you have any imput as to if the game should be played? If you don't think that Miami should hold the game this weekend, suggest moving the game to Tallahassee ;) ....


LOL!!

Nice try ... :-)
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Derek Ortt

#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:05 pm

Even though UM writes my paychecks, I'm a Notre Dame fan so the game can go to Tallahassee as far as I care

Regarding the storm, the Bahamas have no affect on a TC, except maybe for the large islands in the NW Bahamas
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