Frances Advisories

[CaptinCrunch]

[Myersgirl]

I think the important part of this discussion is the trend west in the gfdl model

[cycloneye]

Very true, being on the South side, regardless, isn't
as bad as it could be. Wave as she passes by!!

Surely yes!!

[CaptinCrunch]

[Steve H.]

Agree MGirl, everyone missed the point of the discussion. Possibly a shift to the left to come. Stay Tuned.....as.blizz would say!!

[depotoo]

should I start thinking about evacuating? I'm in west palm beach

[Stephanie]

Stay safe msbee! We'll be thinking about you!

[dhweather]

should I start thinking about evacuating? I'm in west palm beach

You should have your annual hurricane preparedness kit ready, and be
prepared to evacuate.

[Cyclone Runner]

Somebody needs to get on the phone to the French Government and tell them to take this thing seriously. While every other island in the area in under a TS Warning and/or Hurricane Watch, the French have only put St Barthelemy and St Martin on a Tropical Storm Watch, totally insufficient, because both French Islands are in the very north and the outer bands of the Hurricane are already moving into Barbuda. Could the Dutch St Maartan Authorities or the British Authorities on Anguilla get in touch with the French and tell them to upgrade to at least TS Warning asap. Frances is going to pass very close to the north!!!

Ouragan Frances

Alertes en vigueur:

Pré-alerte cyclonique: pour les Iles Vierges Britanniques, pour les Iles Vierges Américaines du Nord (Saint Thomas, Saint John et les ilots avoisinants).

Avis de Tempête: pour les iles de Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, Anguilla, Saint Kitts et Nevis, Sint Maarten, Saba, Saint Eustache, Antigue et Barbude.

Préavis de Tempête: pour Saint Martin et Saint Barth.

Bulletin:

A 15h00 T.U, l'ouragan Frances était centré par 19,3 °N 58,7 °W, soit 480 km à l'est-nord-est des Iles du Vent les plus au nord.

Il se déplaçait vers l'ouest à 20 km/h et cette tendance, avec une légère accélération, devrait se maintenir durant les prochaines 24 heures

Les vents maximaux au centre étaient de 195 km/h avec des rafales plus fortes. Il pourrait à nouveau se renforcer durant les prochaines 24 heures.

Les vents de force cyclonique s'étendaient jusqu'à 140 km du centre, et les vents de force tempête jusqu'à 220 km du centre.

La pression minimale était de 956 mb.

Prochain bulletin à 21h00 T.U

APCEDI
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

[schmita]

Cycloneye,
If we loose power? LOL We fully expect to loose power. Heard Maho beach (south) gone and Simpson beach (east) waves to sea wall.
Nice breeze so far.
irina

[seaswing]

msbee and to all my friends at Juliana's, Scouts, Captains Quarters in Saba, stay safe!

[Lowpressure]

Still sticking with a Carolina impact. Great update Mike.

[TLHR]

should I start thinking about evacuating? I'm in west palm beach

Have a plan.
Scope out some hotels where you could go.
There is still a chance that Frances could come your way, even though many models say "No."

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Derecho]

The French ALWAYS do this, and with Martinique, St. Lucia, too and neighboring islands (but doesn't have the humor value of the St. Maarten/St. Martin difference.)

It's a point of honor for them to not go along with neighboring island's warning. An insight into the French mindset, certainly.

[Wainfleeter]

Msbee, Irina and all other island 'people' please stay safe. Joining the others in thinking of y'all.

[palmettogal]

COLUMBIA, S.C. (August 30, 2004, 9:00a.m.) - The South Carolina Emergency Management Division changed its Operational Condition from OPCON1 to OPCON4 at 8:00 a.m. after Tropical Storm Gaston moved out of the area. Emergency Management officials will now focus their attention on Hurricane Frances as well as the recovery from Gaston. As a result of the storm’s projected movement, key agencies in South Carolina government have been notified to be ready to respond if the need arises.

[Cyclone Runner]

The French ALWAYS do this, and with Martinique, St. Lucia, too and neighboring islands (but doesn't have the humor value of the St. Maarten/St. Martin difference.)

It's a point of honor for them to not go along with neighboring island's warning. An insight into the French mindset, certainly.

We have this problem here too in the South Pacific with the French Territory of Wallis and Futuna. The French Goevrment usually posts warnings about 3-4 hours before they get clobbered by a Category 4. At least the New Caledonia Met seems to do a good job, but they are more independently run.

[Air Force Met]

GreatOne? Is that you?

[PurdueWx80]

look to be building the ridge in to the north of Frances. This morning's Eta and MM5 out to 84 and 72h, respectively, have the edge of the ridge all the way back in the central Gulf. If that is the case, this will definitely be a FL storm. Models are trending towards digging in the PacNW trough later, as it waits for another jet from the central Pacific. That means the flow is flatter (more zonal) until the jet can help carve out and deepen the western trough. I think downstream that means there won't be as much of a weakness in the ridge along the East Coast. We still have an hour or 3 before all the 12Z models are in, but if they all trend towards this, I think there will definitely be more of a threat further south. The 00Z Euro, UKMET and Canadian all show her as being a threat to FL as well. Wait, watch, listen and be patient....all very hard to do right now.

[Pileus]

I'm hoping Mark Sanford holds off on changing all lanes of interstate 26
to one direction(west) this time until he is sure of Frances' path. Course
he wasn't in office during that last fiasco.