These statements say it all...
From the 11 AM Frances discussion;
"Global models indicate some weakening of this ridge after 72 hours. How much this ridge will weaken is critical for the longer-range track of
this hurricane. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and very close to the model consensus and the latest
FSU superensemble forecast.One concern is that the GFDL model
forecast track has generally been shifting more westward with each
successive run."
&
"It is extremely important not to focus on the exact track...
especially at 96 and 120 hours...because the hurricane is not a
point and forecasts at these extended time ranges can easily have
errors of several hundred miles."
Forecaster Pasch
Anyone's @ Risk
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