12Z GFS shifts south to Miami.....

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Derecho
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12Z GFS shifts south to Miami.....

#1 Postby Derecho » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:26 am

Don't worry...

Only 12 more GFS runs, and 6-12 more runs of each of the other globals, before a state can be chosen reasonably confidently for landfall :-)
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chris_fit
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#2 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:27 am

Serious? link?
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Air Force Met
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#3 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:31 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

It's about 180 miles further west...right on the coast of FL near west palm.
Last edited by Air Force Met on Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby NorthGaWeather » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:32 am

lol well its the GFS
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logybogy

#5 Postby logybogy » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:33 am

It looks like West Palm Beach, not Miami.
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#6 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:33 am

Isn't this the one that had it going into ga/sc/nc this morning?
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#7 Postby Windsong » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:36 am

Airforce Met,

Just wanted to say thanks for all the info this morning. Nice to see you here being supportive and informative.
Windsong
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#8 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:36 am

It just means that Florida isn't off the hook yet.
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#9 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:39 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:lol well its the GFS


The GFS has done a pretty good job up until this point. It picked the turn back to the west 3 days before it happened...was right where it said it would be and turned it right when it actually turned.

One thing to remember is that the GFS has some old data still in it from previous model runs. The GIV data is in the model now...but some of the old model run dta is in there as well. It wil probably take another run or two to get it all out.
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#10 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:42 am

Thunder44 wrote:It just means that Florida isn't off the hook yet.


Yep.

It also means the Carolinas aren't off the hook yet. :-)

I honestly have about as much confidence in where this storm will make landfall now as I did Saturday morning.
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#11 Postby Pileus » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:54 am

Derecho, I know it's really far in advance but I'm spending Labor day in
the Smokies. If Frances gets into the eastern GOM will she turn because
of the trough and come in at the Fla panhandle and up the App spine?
It doesn't take much for runoff up there. Thanks
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