Frances appears to be moving at 20 mph

[caneman]

The 2pm advisory still says moving westward at 14mph.

that isn't still. I believe we wnet from 9 to 14 mph within just just a few advisories from 5AM. I wouldn't be surprised at 5 the speed goes up again.

OK, whatever. The 11AM said 13mph and expected to accellerate slightly.

My point was that she's "still" nowhere near 20mph.

My posts all day long have said between 15 and 20. I believe NHC is just stair stepping the speed. Don't believe it? Go back to previous advisories and the system has been arriving at 6 hours instead of 12. That is the point. It is moving faster. Why do you think the models are showing it between Jacksonville and the Cape?

[caneman]

The 2pm advisory still says moving westward at 14mph.

that isn't still. I believe we wnet from 9 to 14 mph within just just a few advisories from 5AM. I wouldn't be surprised at 5 the speed goes up again.

OK, whatever. The 11AM said 13mph and expected to accellerate slightly.

My point was that she's "still" nowhere near 20mph.

My posts all day long have said between 15 and 20. I believe NHC is just stair stepping the speed. Don't believe it? Go back to previous advisories and the system has been arriving at 6 hours instead of 12. That is the point. It is moving faster. Why do you think the models are showing it between Jacksonville and the Cape?

[tallywx]

Nope. Between 1515z and 1715z, according to GOES satellite fixes of the eye, Frances moved from 19.31N, 58.83W to 19.35N, 59.22W. That means it moved 25.56 miles in two hours, or about 13 mph.

[caneman]

Nope. Between 1515z and 1715z, according to GOES satellite fixes of the eye, Frances moved from 19.31N, 58.83W to 19.35N, 59.22W. That means it moved 25.56 miles in two hours, or about 13 mph.

Ok, well the 2:00 advisory has it at 14. That isn't even my point though. My point is that for the last 2 advisories the system is coming in 6 hours quicker that NHC 12 hour fix. All, I'm trying to say is I believe it started moving much quicker than NHC had forecasted and therefore we have it much closer to, if not on the Florida coast.

[caneman]

Nope. Between 1515z and 1715z, according to GOES satellite fixes of the eye, Frances moved from 19.31N, 58.83W to 19.35N, 59.22W. That means it moved 25.56 miles in two hours, or about 13 mph.

Ok, well the 2:00 advisory has it at 14. That isn't even my point though. My point is that for the last 2 advisories the system is coming in 6 hours quicker that NHC 12 hour fix. All, I'm trying to say is I believe it started moving much quicker than NHC had forecasted and therefore we have it much closer to, if not on the Florida coast.

[x-y-no]

My posts all day long have said between 15 and 20. I believe NHC is just stair stepping the speed. Don't believe it? Go back to previous advisories and the system has been arriving at 6 hours instead of 12. That is the point. It is moving faster. Why do you think the models are showing it between Jacksonville and the Cape?

1) If that's what you meant, why did you title this thread " Frances appears to be moving at 20 mph"?

2) 14mph "still" isn't between 15 and 20, and several people including AirForceMet have posted their calculations which have fairly well matched the subsequent NHC advisories.

3) Nobody disputes that the storm is accellerating, and several people including myself have commented on this being the reason for the leftward trend of the models today.

[caneman]

My posts all day long have said between 15 and 20. I believe NHC is just stair stepping the speed. Don't believe it? Go back to previous advisories and the system has been arriving at 6 hours instead of 12. That is the point. It is moving faster. Why do you think the models are showing it between Jacksonville and the Cape?

1) If that's what you meant, why did you title this thread " Frances appears to be moving at 20 mph"?

Yes it should have stated 15 to 20 mph. And it was an estimation anyhow, hardly an exact science.

ONce again - The point has been that it is moving faster than NHC 12 hour projections. not the exact mph.



2) 14mph "still" isn't between 15 and 20, and several people including AirForceMet have posted their calculations which have fairly well matched the subsequent NHC advisories.

That was a rough guesstimate. ONce again............... The point is that it is much further West than NHC 12 hour estimates.

3) Nobody disputes that the storm is accellerating, and several people including myself have commented on this being the reason for the leftward trend of the models today.

Nobody said you did dispute rather it is or isn't accelerating. I'm not going to sit hear and argue with you over a few mph when the whole point of my posts from early this morning is that the system is getting there faster than NHC has it. Good day.

[guanaskip]

in last 3 hours that NHC report (11 to 2), it moved .7 long, but stayed on same lat (19.3)
7/10 of 69 miles is 48.3 miles divided by 3 hours == 16+ mph.
is this the right way, or at least, a way to measure speed?