UKMET Shifts South & West

[Guest]

[caneman]

This has been my point all along. People want to disagree about a few miles an hour. The point is that most are now trending quicker and therefore bringing it in quicker and further left. Still a ways out but inside the 5 day forecast zone now.

[Nimbus]

At least the EXTRAP angle is now believable..

[Matthew5]

The Lbar model has been doing the best for the hurricane models!

[crazycajuncane]

I've been saying for days now. Central Flordia and I will stick with it.
Funny how all these models changed suddenly. That storm is now trucking to the west.

[dhweather]

I've said South Florida (Lake Okechobee, I know, not spelled right) or south.

But beyond 72 hours, I wait for tomorrows model runs.

[Anonymous]

West Palm Beach

[soonertwister]

Now we have 3 models headed into the same area of south central FL, with UKMET a day faster than the other two!

And NO models north of FL. Tomorrow they will all be pointing to Cape Cod.

[tallywx]

Actually, UKMET timing is right in line with other models. They take the forecast out 6 days instead of 5. They show a C. Florida landfall around the Saturday time period.

[golter]

Models have shifted south and guess what, they will shift again. My guess would be more north, since she's going to cross the 20th earlier than any one of the models predicted. I still say a SC/NC storm.

[tallywx]

Actually, UKMET timing is right in line with other models. They take the forecast out 6 days instead of 5. They show a C. Florida landfall around the Saturday time period.

[lookout]

It would seem right now that Frances is actually moving a little NORTH of the models right now. Notice on that map that the majority of them dont have Frances crossing 20N until about 64W but latest satellite shows Frances very close to crossing 20N but probably wont until about 62W. Thats not a big differance but could be rather important in the long run considering the forecast.

[das8929]

UKMET has it hitting the 20 N a bit early.

[Stormcenter]

It would seem right now that Frances is actually moving a little NORTH of the models right now. Notice on that map that the majority of them dont have Frances crossing 20N until about 64W but latest satellite shows Frances very close to crossing 20N but probably wont until about 62W. Thats not a big differance but could be rather important in the long run considering the forecast.

I respectfully disagree click on the links below
and you can see she right on track based on th 4pm
NHC projected track.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[lookout]

It would seem right now that Frances is actually moving a little NORTH of the models right now. Notice on that map that the majority of them dont have Frances crossing 20N until about 64W but latest satellite shows Frances very close to crossing 20N but probably wont until about 62W. Thats not a big differance but could be rather important in the long run considering the forecast.

I respectfully disagree click on the links below
and you can see she right on track based on th 4pm
NHC projected track.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

i was referring more to the models having her cross at 64 or 65W not necessary nhc. i still think she will cross 20N somewhere around 62 or 63. of course me eyes could be playing tricks on me. again, probably splitting hairs but it could be important.

[Rainband]

That model in in my backyard