Frances Advisories

#2361 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:31 pm

I actually kind of agree with this. I have been noticing a new high (and a strong one at that) in the models coming off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast in 4-5 days. Also, the trough in the Pacific Northwest shouldn't dig, as most of the jet is on it's eastern side. When that happens, the trough slowly fills and moves eastward. What it needs to dig is a jet coming into the western side, and every model I've seen has one coming (>120 kt), but not until this weekend. If that is the case, the trough will dig too late to force Frances into the SE...but once it does the ridge ahead of it will also amplify. That means trouble for the Gulf States, because w/ a more zonal pattern before the amplification, Frances would be further south than indicated by the NHC now. If this scenario pans out, I could really see her coming as far west as New Orleans. Only one model shows this currently (Japanese global - quite good), but I see others trending slowly towards this large scale pattern. The 00Z GEM also had it to the west, but went back east this morning. Regardless of what happens, I think the trough in the NW when combined with all of Frances' energy will create one hell of an extratropical storm in the eastern 1/3 of the country. There is a lot more to worry about before that though.

#2362 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:34 pm

No other word for it. WOW

Hyperstorm · #2363 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:37 pm

That would be beautiful to see as it is not going to be over land until at least Wednesday. However, I would be more concerned if it maintained that strength while near land. Then that could be worrisome. It could strengthen all it wants now, but potentially this storm has the SHIPS and GFDL model against it later in the period. Let's see what happens...

#2364 Postby **msbee** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:38 pm

all I have to do is sit and wait it out.
I have cleaned up my yard. MY husband has moved his boat to safe harbor. We are boarded up on the East side. The dogs are fed and walked and will be spending the night inside with us.
I have lots of water, batteriess, flashlights, and oil lamps.
Dinner tonight will be mahi mahi on the grill.
The weather right now is cloudy with no wind. The air has become very humid and oppressive..It feels like you could cut it with a knife,as they say.
The island seems pretty well prepared. They have been publishing reports on the radio all day long, urging people to prepare. They do not have any hurricane shelters set up. They feel, of course, that we will only get tropical force winds. I hope they are right.
We will not get the brunt of this storm definitely.
to all my friends in PR and the Virgin Islands, stay safe too.
I keep thinking about the people in the Bahmaas who may not be so lucky and I pray for their safety

canegrl04 · #2365 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:40 pm

Uh Oh.

I've got a bad feeling Frances will be near,or at cat 5 strength when she makes landfall

#2366 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:40 pm

Good Luck ...msbee...keep in touch!

B-Bear · #2367 Postby **B-Bear** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:42 pm

Nice analysis. Thanks.

Eyes2theSkies · #2368 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:42 pm

I have high-speed connection and I went ahead and opened the big one. WHOA!

The pic was so big, I had to view it in sections. I noticed a small circular feature that I thought was the eye until I got my bearings. It was in the NW outer area and I found another one on the SW side. What are those features?

#2369 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:45 pm

Good Barbara that you are prepared and hopefully you dont get more winds than expected if the eye wobbles a little south.Be safe and after it is over report back.

#2370 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:47 pm

THead wrote:Was just watching Roland Steadham local met from miami, he was saying that another Hi is going to be moving in behind the current hi that is steering Frances. The way he was describing it seemed to be that it didn't really matter if the current Hi weakened on the western edge, because this new one coming in would still keep Frances on a more westardly course. Any thoughts or further info on this?

bill kamal on channel 7 in miami had same diagram and said more likely the two highs bridge and not allow for much if any wekaness and thus we can now see why we have our shift to the left and i bet it shifts more left.

#2371 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:47 pm

Like in this tv program, "The Price is Right", "That's too much".

#2372 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:49 pm

Could get interesting for the gulf. The water temps down here are in the upper 80's too.

I know we'll most likely wait till Thursday or Friday around here to make any moves. We're going to wait to see if it misses Flordia to the south or heads up to NC/SC (I highly doubt it.)

I see this as a Central Flordia storm, but maybe a little southern than that.

Josephine96 · #2373 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:50 pm

Me too cane.. She could very well be near a Category 5 when she makes landfall.. Not good news for Central or South Florida

#2374 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:54 pm

Bob Breck (New Orleans) mentioned this possibility and said Thursday was the key day for the gulf coast states.

#2375 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:56 pm

Steve H. wrote:Air Force Met, they have shifted the position to the left as you know. I'm about 20 miles south of Melbourne Florida at 28N/80.5W. Do you think that the shift may continue to go further west and south? Like through the Florida straits into the GOM. Please figure out a way to get this outta here!! LOL Seems like we're still days away from this becoming a serious threat to our area. Is the margin of error decreased now since this morning, and has the GIV data been included in the data the 5pm discussion is based on? And could this weaken a bit when it slows??? Any info would be greatly appreciated. signed....nervous again near Melbourne.

There is a very good chance it will. If you plot out the 5 day end points...you see them steadily tracking westward....which if you extrapolated those tracks out...you see landfall steadily moving south.

Innotech · #2376 Postby **Innotech** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:01 pm

wow. THAT is a gorgeous photo!

LowMug · #2377 Postby **LowMug** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:02 pm

Air Force Met wrote:I think you need to shift your attention either further south (quoting you) to Florida. I'm not sure which model you are biased towards (everyone has their favorites)...but I think if you will look at the trend to the west...where most of the models have been with the exception of a run or two...you will see you might want to focus your attention on our friends in Florida.

A very good statement was made by the NHC at 5...which they have said before...and some of us have been saying for a while:

THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE.

AFM...you are way to harsh...come on now he is the NCWEATHERWIZARD...and lives in North Carolina not to mention his 1st forecast (which by the way was when it was still a wave in Africa) had it hitting the Carolinas!

Just playing I completely agree...Derek Ortt has the credentials to post forecasts at this point...but when the NHC starts stating bad news...come on give up the forecasts and let people focus on what is at hand...REALLY AT HAND

#2378 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:02 pm

Anonymous · #2379 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:03 pm

Air Force Met....one of my favorite people on this board. The man/;ady has been holding his line, about a south Florida event from the get go.

Fire in the Sky · #2380 Postby **Fire in the Sky** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:04 pm

That is amazing. Not something I'd want bearing down on me for sure. Not small and tight like Charley

Frances Advisories

Well, I am prepared for Frances. Now....

Re: New High Coming in from Great Lakes reg. to steer France

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