Frances Advisories
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feederband
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Matthew5
Well, I can't really see a clear eye pic yet. It does look like it might be getting bigger, but it's hard to tell to what degree yet because of the obstructing cloud cover.
I will say one thing though--just looked at her on loop and she really looks like she's smokin' to the west. She's really moving.
I will say one thing though--just looked at her on loop and she really looks like she's smokin' to the west. She's really moving.
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feederband
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Anonymous
Big EZ wrote:With Hurricane force winds out 70 miles in all directions and TS force winds out 280 miles in all directions, it would not surprise me to see an eye, 30 miles in diameter.
I think it had a 30 mile eye the first time it was cat 4. This one would probably be significantly bigger than that.
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Cyclone Runner
- Category 1
- Posts: 409
- Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:29 pm
- Location: Crows Nest, NSW, Australia
- Contact:
7:00 PM Update from St Maarten
Subject: SxmGIS - Schools closed on Tuesday; Residents urged to prepare for storm conditions and continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Frances; Tropical Storm Warning remains in Effect, Storm conditions expected within 12 hours
News Release
Written by Roddy Heyliger, Communications Consultant for the Government Information Service (GIS), Interim Dept. Head Marsha Beauperthuy, Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis@sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaarten.net/gis
For Immediate Release: Monday, August 30, 2004/Special Bulletin - 5.45PM
Schools closed on Tuesday; Residents urged to prepare for storm conditions and continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Frances; Tropical Storm Warning remains in Effect, Storm conditions expected within 12 hours
Statement by Governor Richards
GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) - St. Maarten remains under a Tropical Storm Warning. As Chairman of the Emergency Operations Center (EOC), a number of steps have been taken by the various Emergency Support Functions in preparation for the approaching Category 3 Hurricane Frances.
Due to the close proximity that Hurricane Frances will be passing St. Maarten, it was decided that the advisories issued over the weekend and throughout today Monday, were warranted seeing that Hurricane Frances is considered a major hurricane. The 5.00PM National Hurricane Center advisory states that there has been an increase in wind speed from 120 to 125 miles per hour since the last advisory issued at 2.00PM.
Residents should have taken all necessary preparation for tropical storm conditions. For those who have not taken any measures as yet, you still have a few hours to do so.
Hurricane Frances based on the 5.00PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, is expected to pass approximately 100 miles North of St. Maarten early Tuesday morning.
Due to the close proximity of the hurricane to the immediate area, - approximately 227 miles from St. Maarten at 5.00PM this afternoon - it was recommended mid-afternoon for residents to take all necessary preparations including closing storm shutters.
Hurricane Frances is considered a dangerous powerful hurricane and we have to all be prepared for any eventuality. Storm conditions will be in the late evening hours and it would be unwise to go outdoors to close windows and doors during that time. We want to avoid people getting injured and therefore called, as early as in the month of June, for early storm preparations.
We are expecting that Hurricane Frances will bring sustained winds of approximately 45 miles per hour with possible higher gusts; and two to four inches of rainfall. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward 140 miles from the center while hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the hurricane center.
A precautionary measure was taken to have schools closed on Tuesday due to the possibility of heavy rains that may be expected from Hurricane Frances. All Government services are closed and only vital government services will be on standby.
Businesses are strongly advised to follow suit and to have their doors remain closed for the duration of Tuesday, in connection with the expected conditions of roads, associated with tropical storm conditions.
The road network leading into St. Peters, South Reward and Saunders may be encumbered by water due to the overflow of the drainage basins as a result of heavy rainfall and this would pose a danger to vehicular traffic in the high density school area.
Residents are requested to drive with care on Tuesday. Roads in low lying areas could be covered by sand due to high sea swells and motorists are advised to exercise caution in those areas. Caution should also be exercised when driving with reference to rock and mud slides above parts of the road network in certain areas on the island.
Residents are advised to make sure that there yards and surrounding areas have been cleared of all loose lying objects which may form a threat to persons and property during possible storm conditions.
Persons residing in less secure dwellings should have completed preparations for tropical storm conditions that may be expected in the course of early Tuesday morning.
Residents are advised to continue to monitor broadcast media for official advisories and notices.
Thank You for listening.
END
NEWS RELEASE
For Immediate Release
STATEMENT BY DISASTER COORDINATOR
For storm conditions such as what is now expected on St. Maarten, the island is as ready as it can be, under the circumstances, with the various ESF (Emergency Support Function) groups having completed most of their preparations for the 2004 hurricane season.
Electricity:
Some 90 percent of the high voltage cabling is now underground, so that eventual resumption of electricity supply can take place at a faster pace, in the event that there is an interruption in service.
Public Works:
Public Works on Monday, started preparations to lower water levels in the Fresh Water and Salt Pond, with the channel near Great Bay to be opened, should the need arise.
Fire Department Office of Disaster Management and Preparedness:
Containers with disaster recovery material is ready for eventual use; should the need arise for assistance of other fire departments and members of the Dutch marine corps, this will be coordinated by the fire department.
Public Health Affairs:
A large shipment of medical disaster material has been received, via STIRANA.
Welfare:
Even though it has not been found necessary to open shelters, at this time, it should be noted that the available shelters have been checked and visited.
Public Information:
The emergency public broadcast system, via the emergency radio frequency 107.9, is ready for use.
Economy and Tourism:
This sector is also in a state of readiness and has its own plan of approach for any eventualities, and is ready to make a general assessment of the state of affairs with hotels, businesses, marinas and airline companies. The airport and seaport have activated their own contingency plans.
As we await the passing of storm conditions associated with hurricane Frances, you are urged to remain calm and alert, to exercise caution and common sense and to monitor broadcast media for future official advisories .
Do remain indoors until after the passing of the storm.
Once more, we will be experiencing storm conditions, and not the hurricane itself.
Roddy Heyliger
St. Maarten Government Information Service (ESF-8/GIS)
Roddy Heyliger
Communications Consultant
MEDPRO - Designed to broaden public knowledge by informing.
"The Value of Knowing First."
@ Government Communications
@ Corporate Communications
Email: heylrody@sintmaarten.net
Cell 599-5529397, 5564217
P.O.Box 414, Philipsburg
St. Maarten D.W.I.
News Release
Written by Roddy Heyliger, Communications Consultant for the Government Information Service (GIS), Interim Dept. Head Marsha Beauperthuy, Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis@sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaarten.net/gis
For Immediate Release: Monday, August 30, 2004/Special Bulletin - 5.45PM
Schools closed on Tuesday; Residents urged to prepare for storm conditions and continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Frances; Tropical Storm Warning remains in Effect, Storm conditions expected within 12 hours
Statement by Governor Richards
GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) - St. Maarten remains under a Tropical Storm Warning. As Chairman of the Emergency Operations Center (EOC), a number of steps have been taken by the various Emergency Support Functions in preparation for the approaching Category 3 Hurricane Frances.
Due to the close proximity that Hurricane Frances will be passing St. Maarten, it was decided that the advisories issued over the weekend and throughout today Monday, were warranted seeing that Hurricane Frances is considered a major hurricane. The 5.00PM National Hurricane Center advisory states that there has been an increase in wind speed from 120 to 125 miles per hour since the last advisory issued at 2.00PM.
Residents should have taken all necessary preparation for tropical storm conditions. For those who have not taken any measures as yet, you still have a few hours to do so.
Hurricane Frances based on the 5.00PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, is expected to pass approximately 100 miles North of St. Maarten early Tuesday morning.
Due to the close proximity of the hurricane to the immediate area, - approximately 227 miles from St. Maarten at 5.00PM this afternoon - it was recommended mid-afternoon for residents to take all necessary preparations including closing storm shutters.
Hurricane Frances is considered a dangerous powerful hurricane and we have to all be prepared for any eventuality. Storm conditions will be in the late evening hours and it would be unwise to go outdoors to close windows and doors during that time. We want to avoid people getting injured and therefore called, as early as in the month of June, for early storm preparations.
We are expecting that Hurricane Frances will bring sustained winds of approximately 45 miles per hour with possible higher gusts; and two to four inches of rainfall. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward 140 miles from the center while hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the hurricane center.
A precautionary measure was taken to have schools closed on Tuesday due to the possibility of heavy rains that may be expected from Hurricane Frances. All Government services are closed and only vital government services will be on standby.
Businesses are strongly advised to follow suit and to have their doors remain closed for the duration of Tuesday, in connection with the expected conditions of roads, associated with tropical storm conditions.
The road network leading into St. Peters, South Reward and Saunders may be encumbered by water due to the overflow of the drainage basins as a result of heavy rainfall and this would pose a danger to vehicular traffic in the high density school area.
Residents are requested to drive with care on Tuesday. Roads in low lying areas could be covered by sand due to high sea swells and motorists are advised to exercise caution in those areas. Caution should also be exercised when driving with reference to rock and mud slides above parts of the road network in certain areas on the island.
Residents are advised to make sure that there yards and surrounding areas have been cleared of all loose lying objects which may form a threat to persons and property during possible storm conditions.
Persons residing in less secure dwellings should have completed preparations for tropical storm conditions that may be expected in the course of early Tuesday morning.
Residents are advised to continue to monitor broadcast media for official advisories and notices.
Thank You for listening.
END
NEWS RELEASE
For Immediate Release
STATEMENT BY DISASTER COORDINATOR
For storm conditions such as what is now expected on St. Maarten, the island is as ready as it can be, under the circumstances, with the various ESF (Emergency Support Function) groups having completed most of their preparations for the 2004 hurricane season.
Electricity:
Some 90 percent of the high voltage cabling is now underground, so that eventual resumption of electricity supply can take place at a faster pace, in the event that there is an interruption in service.
Public Works:
Public Works on Monday, started preparations to lower water levels in the Fresh Water and Salt Pond, with the channel near Great Bay to be opened, should the need arise.
Fire Department Office of Disaster Management and Preparedness:
Containers with disaster recovery material is ready for eventual use; should the need arise for assistance of other fire departments and members of the Dutch marine corps, this will be coordinated by the fire department.
Public Health Affairs:
A large shipment of medical disaster material has been received, via STIRANA.
Welfare:
Even though it has not been found necessary to open shelters, at this time, it should be noted that the available shelters have been checked and visited.
Public Information:
The emergency public broadcast system, via the emergency radio frequency 107.9, is ready for use.
Economy and Tourism:
This sector is also in a state of readiness and has its own plan of approach for any eventualities, and is ready to make a general assessment of the state of affairs with hotels, businesses, marinas and airline companies. The airport and seaport have activated their own contingency plans.
As we await the passing of storm conditions associated with hurricane Frances, you are urged to remain calm and alert, to exercise caution and common sense and to monitor broadcast media for future official advisories .
Do remain indoors until after the passing of the storm.
Once more, we will be experiencing storm conditions, and not the hurricane itself.
Roddy Heyliger
St. Maarten Government Information Service (ESF-8/GIS)
Roddy Heyliger
Communications Consultant
MEDPRO - Designed to broaden public knowledge by informing.
"The Value of Knowing First."
@ Government Communications
@ Corporate Communications
Email: heylrody@sintmaarten.net
Cell 599-5529397, 5564217
P.O.Box 414, Philipsburg
St. Maarten D.W.I.
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LowMug
-
Matthew5
The new eye is going to be huge! Take a look at this. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html
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nccoastalgirl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:22 pm
- Location: Coastal NC
You guys can jump all over the original poster if you want......but only time will tell who is right and who shouldn't be so damn cocky......... People in Florida are obviously under the gun, but I've seen many a hurricane change course and I've also seen many a model change at the last minute also.
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PurdueWx80
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Madison, WI
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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8pm Frances-125 mph winds
Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 24a
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 30, 2004
...Frances continues moving westward as a strong category
three hurricane...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands...Antigua...Barbuda...St maarten...Anguilla...Nevis...St.
Kitts...St. Eustatius and Saba. A tropical storm watch remains in
effect for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of France
will likely upgrade this watch to a warning later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico...Culebra
...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St John and
surrounding islands...and for the British Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for St. Croix. A tropical storm
watch may be required for the north coast of the Dominican Republic
later tonight.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.6 north...longitude 60.7 west or about 190 miles
...305 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Frances is moving toward the west near 14 mph ...22 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On
this track...the core of the hurricane will pass to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late tonight and early Tuesday. However...
the outer bands of Frances will begin affecting these islands in a
few hours.
Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have remained near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur during
the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 180 miles...290 km.
The NOAA hurricane hunters estimate that the minimum central
pressure has decreased to 945 mb...27.91 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are likely over
portions of the warning area in association with Frances.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...19.6 N... 60.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 945 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 30, 2004
...Frances continues moving westward as a strong category
three hurricane...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands...Antigua...Barbuda...St maarten...Anguilla...Nevis...St.
Kitts...St. Eustatius and Saba. A tropical storm watch remains in
effect for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of France
will likely upgrade this watch to a warning later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico...Culebra
...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St John and
surrounding islands...and for the British Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for St. Croix. A tropical storm
watch may be required for the north coast of the Dominican Republic
later tonight.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.6 north...longitude 60.7 west or about 190 miles
...305 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Frances is moving toward the west near 14 mph ...22 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On
this track...the core of the hurricane will pass to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late tonight and early Tuesday. However...
the outer bands of Frances will begin affecting these islands in a
few hours.
Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have remained near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur during
the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 180 miles...290 km.
The NOAA hurricane hunters estimate that the minimum central
pressure has decreased to 945 mb...27.91 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are likely over
portions of the warning area in association with Frances.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...19.6 N... 60.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 945 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.
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#neversummer
-
soonertwister
- Category 5
- Posts: 1091
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 2:52 pm
Frances could be in a rapid intensification cycle, but it does appear another eyewall replacement is underway. Strengthening is unlikely to continue for very long due to the relatively dry air she's moving through, and canes tend to weaken a little after a replacement cycle. Watch out when she gets past 65W and closer to 70, though, that's when the really serious fireworks could begin.
It's actually better if Frances becomes a cat-5 days from landfall, because hurricanes very seldom hold that strength for more than a day and seldom return to that level. If you have a degree of confidence that she won't get back to cat-5, then at least the most destructive potential has been somewhat limited.
It's actually better if Frances becomes a cat-5 days from landfall, because hurricanes very seldom hold that strength for more than a day and seldom return to that level. If you have a degree of confidence that she won't get back to cat-5, then at least the most destructive potential has been somewhat limited.
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