Frances has a new HUGE eye, old eye gone

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logybogy

Frances has a new HUGE eye, old eye gone

#1 Postby logybogy » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:07 pm

Image
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LowMug

#2 Postby LowMug » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:29 pm

Where are Thunder 44, PurdueWx80, mf_dolphin, and kevin

It must have been some pretty good stuff I was "smoking" to see (3 hours ago) that the eye was clearing out and that a big @ss eye was about to show up on this PUPPY...I forgot though (as Thunder 44 said and the others agreed) I should not talk about that which I do not understand.

Just a little smack talk is all...its all fun...everybody enjoy watching Frances
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mf_dolphin
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#3 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:36 pm

Yep I agree it must have been good stuff. There wasn't an eye a couple of hours ago :-)
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LowMug

#4 Postby LowMug » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:39 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:Yep I agree it must have been good stuff. There wasn't an eye a couple of hours ago :-)


Exactly...it was clearing out from the ERC

I look forward to admitting I was wrong and "eating crow"
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#5 Postby joseph01 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:40 pm

Honking your own horn there, eh?

Well, kudos to you Lowmug!!!

That is...if indeed...that is a new big @ss eye.
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chris_fit
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#6 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:47 pm

I think the eye so the right of that.... that still looks like a pocket of dry air to me
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LowMug

#7 Postby LowMug » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:50 pm

joseph01 wrote:Honking your own horn there, eh?

Well, kudos to you Lowmug!!!

That is...if indeed...that is a new big @ss eye.


just playing Joseph...they kind of called me out...so I just wanted to call back out...like I said just a little smack is all
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chris_fit
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#8 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:50 pm

I think the eye so the right of that.... that still looks like a pocket of dry air to me
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kevin

#9 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:54 pm

I love being wrong. =D
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AL Chili Pepper
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#10 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:55 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like she might have a little case of indigestion to me. The cane, overall, doesn't look as impressive right now as it did a few hours ago.
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#11 Postby B-Bear » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:57 pm

That would be expected if she were going through an eyewall recycling period. The weird thing is, she just went through one a few hours ago.
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#12 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:59 pm

From the 11pm forecast advisory: 40NM eye!

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 170SE 170SW 220NW.
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B-Bear
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#13 Postby B-Bear » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:59 pm

You can see it better on this image...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

You can see a pinpoint dot in the middle of the eye, and that bigger band looks like the outter eyewall. I think she's going through another eyewall recycling period. Very strange.
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Matthew5

#14 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:02 pm

I knew that was a eye that was forming! A 40 mile wide eye holy #%^# this is going to be a big one :eek:
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#15 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:14 pm

I been hoping I was wrong about this storm. Regretfully I appears I have been right. This is going to be one for the ages. Prayers to all in her path.

Image
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VaLady
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Oh MY GOSH.

#16 Postby VaLady » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:00 pm

btsgmdad wrote:I been hoping I was wrong about this storm. Regretfully I appears I have been right. This is going to be one for the ages. Prayers to all in her path.

Image




Oh my Gosh, is right.. That thing is Huge by that picture. Have a friend in the Virgin Islands, St. Croix, and I am so grateful that the eye is not going over them. To me, Francis is very frightening. :(
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Wider Eye

#17 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:19 pm

This makes sense after the torque wobbles that previous tight eye spun out with. Frances is regaining her previous wide-eye of two days ago.

What you are seeing is a classic buzzsaw taking shape over warmer waters and good conditions. The disc is contracting in accordance.

I am now worried that a buzzsaw will pave its own road ahead of it with outflow subsidence and strengthen the ridge above it.

The fast forward speed is an indication of the ridge firming - keeping Frances more south...

Category 5 buzzsaw tomorrow is not out of possibility at this point...

Classic Florida landfaller like Okeechobee 1928 could be taking place...
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