Gaston Advisories

[Harbormaster]

Gaston looks like it will miss CC to the south by a decent margin based on mid atlantic radar and sat loops, but it is tough at night without visibles - it seems to be heading ENE on the radar loop out of Wakefield VA

[jwcaneme]

A few of Gaston's bands spent the afternoon here in Richmond with 11.53 inches rain locally. Flooding is historic and one dam in the Falling Creek area has been breached with more than a thousand evacuated. Serious flooding downtown in historic district with 10 feet of water in some buildings. Gaston never gave up.

[Hyperstorm]

Gaston WASN'T forecasted to move offshore this soon. I suspect there was a Fujiwhara Effect in here with Hermine. Hermine moving north...Gaston had to move east on the south side. That's how Fujiwhara works.

Once Hermine is out of the picture, expect a NNE heading. I'd be vigilant in Cape Cod...

[Harbormaster]

This is also (obviouly based on sig flooding in VA) a slow mover. There is barely any mention of any Gaston impacts from NWS Taunton, MA. We have TS warnings here for Hermine which is now completely invisible. According to the latest Hermine cooridnates, track, and fowrard motion at 8:00, we should be starting to feel the effects here in Green Harbor, MA (just north of Plymouth). What I am observing is an air temp of 69, 1/2 mile vis in fog and DEAD CALM.

I am surprised that Gaston has barely been mentioned because even if he misses us by 100 miles to the south, it seems that the hydrologic impacts here would be at least mentionalbe.

All the talk is still about Hermine that doesn't even exist!!!

[New Englander]

I was thinking the exact same thing Habor.. its ever odd indeed.. i think there will be more mention of Gaston at 11pm though. The thing that i thought of though is the fact that most of the people around here know of gaston but dont know of its strength and possible strength soon to come. So if it does come close or hit the cape people will be in for a surpise.

[WXBUFFJIM]

This is a deadly situation in Chesterfield County tonight. Areas south and west of Richmond, particularly those near the Reservoir Dam and the Meadowbrook area need to get out due to water spilling over the spillways of Falling Creek Dam. This dam could potentially fail, which could be a deadly issue if you're not out of there. Mandatory evacs continue in this area as we speak. Also got some rescues going on over a rare spot. Homes are flooded so badly in the path of this potential dam failue that fire dept is punching holes through the roof of homes to get people out. That's a very dangerous situation. Statement below.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 200 AM EDT

* AT 1000 PM EDT...CHESTERFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAD
ORDERED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS NEAR THE FALLING CREEK RESERVOIR
DAM. WATER IS NOW OVERTOPPING THE SPILLWAY...AND DAM FAILURE IS
POSSIBLE. THOSE ORDERED TO EVACUATE ARE INSTRUCTED TO GO TO
MEADOWBROOK HIGH SCHOOL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING...THOSE AREAS NEAR THE FALLING CREEK
RESERVOIR DAM...INCLUDING MANY IN THE MEADOWBROOK AREA.

THIS FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED DUE TO THE POSSIBLE FAILURE OF
THE FALLING CREEK RESERVOIR DAM.


On top of now TROPICAL STORM GASTON, we have Hermine just offshore from Martha's Vienyard tonight with 40 mph winds and also our huge monster, Frances with 125 mph winds. Signs do show strengthening with Frances with a larger eye beginning to show and falling pressures likewise. I wouldn't be surprised to see 130-135 mph at 11 PM EDT. With Frances, I think it will be tough to miss Florida, I'll say that right now. With a ridge established north of the system and no significant troughs in the way of this system, a track towards Florida seems most likely. It would take one heck of a turn to miss Florida and that least likely to be happening at this point. One thing is for sure, this is a dangerous hurricane and will be a very dangerous hurricane at landfall on Saturday. While it's not guaranteed, Florida is gonna be tough to miss this dangerous system.

Jim

[Hyperstorm]

BTW, I wouldn't consider dropping the TS warnings in east MA. They will be recyclable for Gaston...

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast/Advisory Number 14

Statement as of 03:00Z on August 31, 2004

tropical storm center located near 37.7n 75.8w at 31/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 50 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1001 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 0ne 45se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas.. 0ne 45se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 37.7n 75.8w at 31/0300z
at 31/0000z center was located near 37.2n 76.6w

forecast valid 31/1200z 39.3n 73.4w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 60se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 01/0000z 41.6n 66.9w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 75se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 44.3n 59.4w...extratropical
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 45ne 90se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 02/0000z 48.0n 49.0w...extratropical
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 90se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 03/0000z...absorbed by extratropical low

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 37.7n 75.8w

next advisory at 31/0900z

forecaster Stewart

[New Englander]

yes i agree.. they should be extended to include the south shore though.

[New Englander]

yes i agree.. they should be extended to include the south shore though.

[daisy25]

I guess we will have to wait and see. im just curouis as to how close gaston is going to come to us here in extream SE Ct. Waiting for the 11 news. Daisy

[New Englander]

[New Englander]

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... aston.html

A crappy forecast, but then again, there's not much to be said.

[Harbormaster]

Gaston is nowofficially a Tropical Storm again. The NHC does not predict any intensification, but we will see!

[New Englander]

UGH! i keep reposting lol.. anyways thats the old track we will have to see how close to that it is.

[New Englander]

Of course the new one comes out seconds after i post the old one lol...

[Harbormaster]

I was just going to say that, but the center now isn't too far off from where it was projected to be, perhaps a bit south.

STILL no mention from NWS Taunton about Gaston, it is all about Hermine.

Still dead calm here and it should be landfalling near Marthas Vineryard or Hyannis as we speak. It is hard to tell though with nothing to look at!

[New Englander]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like its moving NNE.. a little bit north of the track.

[Harbormaster]

As a side note, the very subtle swirl that is Hermine should now be making landfall near Fall River / Tiverton RI according to that loop that you just posted - you have to watch it six times to see it!

Still no wind here - we will be in the "dreaded" SE quad where all of the winds are supposed to be located.

Will let you know if any dead leaves fall off of the trees here....