00Z GFS

[btangy]

00Z GFS is much further north with Frances at 72 hours than the 12Z run. Before 72 hours, the GFS pretty much agrees with the 12Z run. What's strange about this run is the overall synoptic pattern (500mb and 800mb flow) look the same between the 12Z and 00Z, so there isn't really any solid explanation why the 00Z takes Frances so much further north. Granted the ridge in the Atlantic is ever so slightly weaker and perhaps there's more of a negative tilt to the ridge, but that is being very nitpicky about minor details. In previous runs, there was a shortwave across the Great Lakes that caused the deviation to the north, but here there is no such pattern, so perhaps somebody else has more insight.

Was any recon data (high altitude obs) in tonight's runs?

[Matthew5]

The storm will make landfall much farther south then that says! I think that run is doing something against the law! Now the high pressure to the north will be strong enough to push this into southern Maybe as far north as central Florida.

[Huckster]

I am no expert, but it looks like its trying to shove Frances right into the ridge of high pressure. I can't understand how that would make sense. Seems like the GFS did something wackily similar earlier today.

[Weather4Life23]

Looks like it gets caught up by a cold front on this run
[imghttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_144l.gif[/img]

[btangy]

Yes, there is a sharper trough over the Great Lakes at 144 hours, but that doesn't explain the deviation northward at 72 hours since that feature has not developed yet and had a chance to weaken the ridge.

[wlfpack81]

Obviously this is just one model and the next run will have some sort of change but just for now I'll speak as if this was the track Frances will take. This track would certainly not be good as I'm from Hampton, VA (though I live in Norman, OK now) and my mom and dad still live there as well as my nephew with his dad and step-mom. Needless to say I have childhood friends and their families there also. In eastern NC I have family in Washington, County as well as an aunt in Raleigh, NC and friends that I went to school with.

Assuming this thing would slam into NC as a Cat 4 by the time it was just west of the Hpt Roads area the winds would still be fairly strong and would make the Isabel damage in that area look like child's play. Will certainly have to watch the other models and see if they eventually begin to trend right (north/northwestward) as well. Could be a busy few days of me on the phone giving advise to family/friends on what they need to do since most have no clue about how to handle tropical systems.