Frances Advisories

[Dmetal81]

I think you're on to something, would like to here AirforceMets take on it, but indeed looks that way. Yes, I remember Isabel's massive cat5 eye. She was a beauty, a deadly one, but a beauty indeed.

[calidoug]

Looking at the 615Z IR sat pic, I'd venture that we are in fact seeing a transition to an annular state. Not quite a perfect (w.r.t. intensity distribution) doughnut yet, and the eye needs to clear on the eastern side, but it sure looks like it's on the transition path shown here:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/IN-H ... gure06.gif

Doug

[Dmetal81]

I dont have a link, but check the water vapor, it shows more clearly that monstrous eye emerging.

[calidoug]

Actually NOT north of 20N... look at the *center* of the eye:

about 19.8 / 19.9N

Note the 2AM advisory as well: 19.8N 62.1W

Doug

[Sanibel]

Not north of 20. Very important because a strengthening storm is tending left now!

The center of the huge eye is actually tracking straight west and below 20N. Real ramifications for downrange!

[Sanibel]

On last IR look my critics were definitely wrong. I'll stick with the wobbles indicating strengthening. Face it, Frances is about to blow her stack and clear that 40 mile eye!

This was an irregular transition with a pressure flux. Frances is a weird one that tells me she's not a tweeker but a heavy long-lasting roller like famous Florida landfallers of the past.


I'm tired. We'll see tomorrow...

[KeyLargoDave]

I'm very focused on the north component. NHC track, all the models show steepening tracks from 63 on, and then to pretty much northwest after 69 W. If that doesn't start proving out, everything shifts a lot.

[Dmetal81]

Theres something ominous about an eye THAT large... especially with so little convection around it comparatively.... somethings gotta give, I think she may blow fairly shortly too.

[Dmetal81]

Is recon still in the area, or we gonna have to wait till the morning to find out whats going on?

[soonertwister]

Ooops! Sorry.

Don't worry Dixie, I know exactly what you are saying.

Florida residents should all take a look at that projected path. Every single Florida resident that is old enough to think and reason for him or herself should take a hard look at that projected path graphic.

As of 11:00 p.m. on Monday, the entire state of Florida is under threat of a hurricane strike within the next five days.

I've spoken with Florida citizens about their concerns about Hurricane Frances, and I've consistently had the same response to them, and that response has been to be prepared before the hurricane strikes, and to be ready to evacuate well in advance of that storm should it become a necessity.

The typical question has been "Am I at risk?". I've given a consistent answer, and that is that if you are within the forecast cone on the NHC projected path map, you cannot assume that you are not in danger, no matter how far away from that dotted line that represents the most likely path might be.

I do hope that all residents of Florida, all of whom are currently under threat from this storm, will take the appropriate measures to ensure the safety of themselves, their families, their pets, their property, and their friends. What you do in these days ahead may have a significant bearing on the quality of your lives in the future. I hope that you all will keep that in mind in all of the decisions you make in the next 72 hours. This isn't all just about you and those close around you. It's about the shared experience of community that you feel in your state and comunities.

Please do not deny those who may be more desperate for help than yourself. Many citizens of Florida are elderly and less mobile than the rest of us. Please don't forget those persons in the next few days. They may be your neighbor or casual friend, but to many others they are their mothers and fathers, and the most precious people in those persons lives.

Be safe everyone.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT12 KNHC 310655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/0655Z
B. 19 DEG 47 MIN N
62 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2656 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 051 DEG 121 KT
G. 327 DEG 18 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 10 C/ 3078 M
J. 16 C/ 3069 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E04/40/30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 08
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NW QUAD 0649Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 138 DEG 13NM
FROM FL CENTER.

Probably not much change in the intensity on the 5pm advisory, but the pressure is down from the last vortex and the flight level winds are little higher. They eye is also clearing out again, so it may begin an intensification phase today.

[tailgater]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS ... latest.gif Radar starting to pick this monster. The Northern most Virgin Isle should start feeling effects soon.

[TampaFl]

Frances is coming into radar view.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Robert

[Thunder44]

Dixie, what's makes you think from that article that other met's won't be preparing for Frances? Or am I misunderstanding your topic?

[sunflowerkist]

Frances is coming into radar view.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Robert

Thats a neat picture(sort of). What are you expecting Frances to do? I am reading so much information my head is swirling. I am east of you by about 45 miles.

[Cyclone Runner]

The outer central Hurricane Frances are approaching to two Northern British Territory Outliers of Anguilla and Anegada, the northern-most of British Virgin Islands. Reports from Tortola, the main BVI Island, and from St Thomas, the USVI, indicates winds picking up dramatically.

Watch San Juan Radar as Storm Approaches both islands:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

[NC George]

Hurricanes are so fickle. That's what makes them so unpredictable.

While I can't speak for others, I tend to predict a storm's path a bit to the right of the NHC path because storms have done so in the past. Fran was supposed to hit Charleston dead on, then hooked to the right. The same with Floyd. First Edisto Beach, but wound up in Wilmington. Recently, the Weather Channel had someone stationed in Tampa but Charley came ashore more towards Ft. Meyers.

If the NHC is saying Melbourne, then I liable to say Jacksonville or the FL/GA border.

We'll know more into Wednesday.

WOW, that's the exact same reasoning I've been following for years. Bertha, Fran, Floyd: they all were supposed to go to the west of NC, but they end up here. Nothing makes me feel safer than having the forecast track pass over my house 5 days out. Nothing makes me more nervous than having the forecast track go through GA or SC.

[Matthew5]

503
WTNT41 KNHC 310839
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949
MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER
EYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND
MAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.

WHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER ABOUT 48 HR. ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.9N 62.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 65.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 21.3N 67.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.2N 70.2W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.2N 72.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 310815
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
A NEARLY FULL MOON RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE ADDED
ILLUMINATION...EXCELLENT VISIBILITY...AND A WIDE VARIETY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS IS PROVIDING INCREDIBLE TROPICAL MARINE VISTAS AT THIS
NOCTURNAL HOUR.

AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REEFS THIS MORNING ARE
HOLDING STEADY NEAR 85F. GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE
KEEPING AIR TEMPERATURES UNIFORM ACROSS ALL EXPOSURES. AS
EXPECTED...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED TO
THE NORTH OF THE KEYS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS RISEN 2MB IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS AT KEY WEST. CURRENTLY...KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR
DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERVICE AREA
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10KT. MOST SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE LOWER KEYS...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA REEF.

AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19.8N/62.1W...OR ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH.

.FORECASTS...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BACK FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
TO MAINLY EAST BY TONIGHT...NORTHEAST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS BACKING OF WINDS WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY
THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE FRANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ISLAND CUMULUS AND PROPAGATION OF MAINLAND CONVECTION AND BOUNDARIES
TOWARD THE KEYS.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK...STORM STRUCTURE...AND
INTENSITY OF HURRICANE FRANCES. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
FRANCES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THURSDAY EVENING...AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ARE WITHIN A BUBBLE OF UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE...FLORIDA
KEYS RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST.

AT THIS POINT...WE EXPECT INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN MORE OUT
OF DUE EAST BY TONIGHT...AND THEN NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY FRESHEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS A FAIR BET BY LATE FRIDAY. WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALL MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK FORECASTS REGULARLY FOR
UPDATES...AND TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION
REGARDING HURRICANE FRANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEYW AND KMTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CIRCUMNAVIGABLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE KMIA-KEYW
TWEB ROUTE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MAINLAND HALF
OF THE TWEB ROUTE. A SUBTLE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS MAY PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IMPACTS AT KEYS TERMINALS...IF ANY...WILL BE
BRIEF. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 91/81/91/81/90 30/30/50/40/40
MARATHON 93/81/93/81/92 30/30/50/40/40

&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.......K. KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...SD

[southerngale]

Thats a neat picture(sort of). What are you expecting Frances to do? I am reading so much information my head is swirling. I am east of you by about 45 miles.

I know what you mean. Information overload and I still don't know where it's going.