Here is the new GFS loop... 06z

[ericinmia]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ericinmia]

GREAT... just peachy...

Now the GFS shows Frances just off of downtown miami...

Once these models fully initialize, and the ones that use this as its global... there should be a general consensus between miami, and wet palm area.

I am begining to belive there was something wrong with the 00z GFS run. The nHC discredited it, and it seems to have been entirely off.

-Eric

[Tertius]

You can clearly see the high pressure towards the end of this loop, sinking in and preventing Frances from going northward. However, that high is also moving eastward and you can see that if Frances gets much west of it she'll ride northward again. It all seems to depend on how quickly the various puzzle pieces slide around. I'm sure glad I don't have to predict this thing. We may not have any accuracy on landfall until mere hours before the event.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

local met said this morning the same thing about the puzzle pieces, he said DO NOT think it is a FLA storm and stop paying attention, remember Floyd! He said Thurs will be the deciding day??

[Guest]

Local mets from different areas say different things in order to keep their viewers focused on potential impacts that may happen to that specific area.

[Guest]

Also that GFS loop cannot make up its mind as to where the high is going to be.The center of the high jumps around from from Canada down to New England to just off New York.It jerks it around back & forth & then it loses it & another High center comes of Nova Scotia & it centers that in the north ATL & the end of the loop.

To much herky-jerky placement of the high IMO.

[Thunder44]

It seems to keep it just offshore of Florida before turning northward into SC. But it's further South and West than the last run.

[Tertius]

Also that GFS loop cannot make up its mind as to where the high is going to be.The center of the high jumps around from from Canada down to New England to just off New York.It jerks it around back & forth & then it loses it & another High center comes of Nova Scotia & it centers that in the north ATL & the end of the loop.

To much herky-jerky placement of the high IMO.

I agree but that's rather the point. The positioning of that high makes the difference between a stalled drift westward and a rapid flight northward toward South Carolina. I hate this level of uncertainty.

[Suncat]

NC mets are not leaving a possible turn to the north and a greater impact on NC out of the question. They suggest that a turn to the north may occur when Frances gets closer to the FL coast. We won't have a better solution until Thursday

[Guest]

How much metamorphisis the GFS expect the high to go through & or how much real estate does the GFS expect the high to cover.The high looks like a pinball bouncing all over the place & thats what causing this track.

[Jevo]

drudd this goes along with basic NHC "Path of least regret" They use everything possible to keep as many people on alert until the last 24-48 hours. Look at yesterday. The GFDL was the only outlier and has performed like crap during this storm but it gave them a reason to keep people on their toes up north. The GFDL which has been flip-flopping since this storm started...... flip flops again and they have to mention it..... Yet the Euro model which performed on the dot with Isabel, Floyd, and Andrew has not moved 3 degrees in 10 runs is not getting mentioned

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[Guest]

NC mets are not leaving a possible turn to the north and a greater impact on NC out of the question. They suggest that a turn to the north may occur when Frances gets closer to the FL coast. We won't have a better solution until Thursday

Off course the local met there is going to say that as long as there is a hurricane to your SE that can pose a threat to your area.Just like the mets down here are saying that its a real threat here.If they say anything other than that & it hits they will have to hide under a rock for the next decade.