I hate to beat a dead horse

[caneman]

but still can't help to think that NHC is too slow. They have the system in off the coast in 96+ hours or Saturday morning. Sure looks to me that if it comes into South Florida that it will actually get their late afternoon early Friday evening. Any one else see this?

[drudd1]

I have to agree that the timetable will be stepped up at some point. At the current speed, a landfall at the current projected path would be Friday night/Saturday morning, but a lot of things could change that. Obviously, how fast or slow Francis ultimately decides to go. Also, compunding this is where landfall occurs. If I were a betting man, knowing what I know now, I would guess anywhere from late Friday evening through 10am Saturday morning. Things should get clearer during the next 24 to 36 hours.

[Stormcenter]

but still can't help to think that NHC is too slow. They have the system in off the coast in 96+ hours or Saturday morning. Sure looks to me that if it comes into South Florida that it will actually get their late afternoon early Friday evening. Any one else see this?

Too slow and north, oh well.

[Guest]

My take is that NHC expects a Wwrd shift/trend to develop as noted in last nites 11 PM discussion.The ECMWF,NOGAPS,CMC,ETA are forecasting this to be headed in the general direction of South Fla.Now the GFS brings it in closer than on the previous run.As soon as the GFDL & UKMET get on the same page more or less I believe the NHC will shift the forecast track south by 50-60 miles & then it gets serious with the issuing of watches tomorrow for South Fla & points north.

[Tertius]

Correct me if I'm wrong but a quicker pace in this case would likely mean a more westward track, yes?

[drudd1]

Duh, not enough coffee in my system yet. I took the distance as the crow flies, and that would not accurately predict the distance traveled. I'll hush until I wake up, LOL!

[sunflowerkist]

but still can't help to think that NHC is too slow. They have the system in off the coast in 96+ hours or Saturday morning. Sure looks to me that if it comes into South Florida that it will actually get their late afternoon early Friday evening. Any one else see this?

There is now a report out of the Tampa NWS that Floy uh Frances could slow down as she approaches the Bahamas. I am assuming that it "Could" be in reaction to the ULL or some other anomaly maybe the Bermuda triangle, or one of those eye rebuilding episodes, that would change the path of the whole storm enough to save Florida from an entire pass over by some miles. I am sure hoping that this scenario pans out and maybe even steers this thing further to the ATlantic. We don't want to wish this one on anyone in the US or other areas of the world for that matter.

[TLHR]

The UKMET and GDFL have a track record of reliability.
The problem, I assume, for the NHC is that they are not agreeing with each other, as posted earlier.

In South Carolina, Gov. Hodges ultimately lost his job because voters blamed him for the evacuation mess during Floyd. I'm sure govt officials in FL, GA and SC don't want to make the same mistake. Nor do officials at the NHC.

If you worked at the NHC, where would you say Frances was coming ashore, and would you resign if you were wrong?

[Guest]

i cannot understand why they don't know? the projected path this morning shows a hit the NHC path shows a hit in Fla why do they show this path only to be possibably wrong by tonight? why is there talk now that this Frances could come more north???

[Steve H.]

Exactly right with the 6Z GFS. This has shifted the track slightly left of the 0Z run, bringing it dangerously close to the east central FL coast. Euro run I think might be the tiebreaker. Let's see if it shifts to the right. GFDL I never liked but it has tracked pretty close to whre the storm has been. I think the GFS and ETA got hosed with new data on the 0Z run, but will smooth after a run or two more. UKMET is pretty consistent, and a tad right of yesterdays run. Canadien and NOGAPS are ominous. I'm SOOOOOOOOOOO confused LOL. Nobody will be laughing somewhere on Friday nite

[TLHR]

i cannot understand why they don't know? the projected path this morning shows a hit the NHC path shows a hit in Fla why do they show this path only to be possibably wrong by tonight? why is there talk now that this Frances could come more north???

The GDFL keeps moving Frances up and down the Florida coast.
Yesterday it was saying central Florida. Today it's saying Savannah.
That's a HUGE difference with millions of people and billions of $$$ on the line. No one wants to be the next Gov. Hodges and make the wrong call, I guess.

[Brent]

Well, unless it slows down, it will get into Florida well before Saturday.

[gurutc]

To be political, Gov Hodges sucked 899 millibars in general. It wasn't Floyd that doomed him. His administration killed commerce in SC way worse than Hugo did.

[Sean in New Orleans]

If it doesn't slow down, then it won't turn...maybe that's what they're thinking. If it turns it must slow down, therefore, a slower path.

[Guest]

well, no matter what, theres a 99% chance someone will get hit. We just have to wait and see, however right now the primary area of risk looks to be from Miami to Myrtle Beach.

[Sanibel]

Latest: 942!


A faster west track can only mean more south, right?


The ridge appears to be holding and keeping its steering depth. A faster speed not only indicates ridge strength, but should normally bring Frances in ahead of any predicted turning feature - right?

[hurricane_lover]

Again,S Florida has nothing to worry about. This is a carolina's hurricane.

[Josephine96]

I do think that with a faster motion.. it should keep Frances south since there really is no approaching cold fronts ahead..

Also.. moving 16mph means it moves almost 100 miles every 6 hours.. Maybe the NHC needs to bump up their time table..