Frances #14... south and central FL landfall

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


also, we will be starting 6 hourly forecasts for obvious reasons, in case we need to take any action

[Derek Ortt]

graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

also, if posted at other sites, please cite your sources. Forecasts showed up at free republic copied and pasted. Please use the link with any copy and paste so that there is no confusion as to where they come from and <b>NO HOTLINKING</b>

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


also, we will be starting 6 hourly forecasts for obvious reasons, in case we need to take any action

At this moment I think landfall will be further south of your forecast. Thanks for the post.

[chris_fit]

Good Forecast Thanks.

[Derek Ortt]

Unfortunately, I will not be able to post the link every time a forecast is released, probably starting tomorrow, (conference calls and briefings are lined up for much of the day)

so you may have to just go to the nwhhc home page (yes, it may load slower than usual as the volume is MUCH higher than normal).

Also, this could go south, but right now the forecasts cannot have any gut or instinct influence. Too much is riding on these, so we have to follow the guidance somewhat as these forecasts are purely science based

[Windsong]

As always, thank you.

[Derek Ortt]

No problem


If this does come to Miami, I will keep forecasting as long as I can, even if it means placing my own life in danger (one, its kind of expected, in fact, getting the forecast correct is a higher priority than preparing is what I have been told last evening before leaving the office). Plus, I will not let those either in the Carolinas or the GOM down with no forecasts just due to a landfall here.

[Windsong]

We have a rocket on the pad with a short launch window for this evening. If it doesn't launch, there is not enough time to roll back, compounding an already dangerous situation.

Also, the buildings at KSC, with the exception of the Launch Facility itself, are only rated for a CAT 3 hit. This endangers the whole space program, as the Orbitors are housed in the Vehicle Assembly Buildings and will be destroyed in anything over a Cat 3.

I would really like to see this thing steer clear of Brevard County. I have rooms rented on the mainland, but not sure if that's good enough. Nebraska is sounding better and better.

Thank you for your dedication Derek, but please take care of yourself.
Windsong

[SFLgirl]

Thank you for all of your hard work Derek, it is greatly appreciated.
Please don't put your own life in danger!

[Dean4Storms]

With everything we are seeing this AM the track is about as down the middle and as reliable as it gets. Good work Derek.

[Derek Ortt]

That was a forecast from John Cangialosi. I will not be making every forecast from here on as we want to have a variety of opinions, since some actions are being made on these forecasts

[Roxy]

This endangers the whole space program, as the Orbitors are housed in the Vehicle Assembly Buildings and will be destroyed in anything over a Cat 3.

That would be disasterous. Well this whole thing is a distaster.....but LEAVE THE ORBITERS ALONE FRANCES.

[Josephine96]

I still think Central Florida despite that sudden northward jerk in the apparent track