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caneman
Air Force Met - MWatkins or any Met
What type of role will the ULL in the Bahamsa play. Looks to me to have moved only 50 miles or so in the last 10 hours. So if you you extrapolate, it would perhaps move another 100 to 150 milesby the time Frances comes in contact. What is your take? How much has it moved? How far do you think it will move by the time Frances impedes on it? Assuming it doesn't move much and High Pressure is on top would this initially createda NW movement and eventually back to West as it squeezes thru? You analysis would be appreciated.
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caneman
OK, may have had my own question answered. Got this over at CFHC site the 7 day HPC forecast loop. Looks to initially go NW around the ULL and then builds back towards the Central Florida coastline. Take a look and tohughts welcome.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Last edited by caneman on Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Air Force Met
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I was looking at that last night. It's forecasted to move out before then. I am always leary of upper lows that don't move as forecasted though. That is what happened with Bret. An upper low in northern Mexico hung around longer than forecast...and since major hurricanes are steered at about 300-400 mb...they can turn them...instead of sheering them (if they aren't too strong). An upper low is what steered Alicia NNW into a blocking high over OK. It will ahve to be watched...but I think it will eventually move out over the next couple of days.
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WeatherEmperor
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Derek Ortt
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Dean4Storms
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Basically there is a split in the models with what happens to the ULL. The northern tracking models lift the ULL northward out in front of Frances whereas the westward tracking models back the ULL toward Florida and dissapate it. We will have to wait and see.
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caneman
Dean4Storms wrote:Basically there is a split in the models with what happens to the ULL. The northern tracking models lift the ULL northward out in front of Frances whereas the westward tracking models back the ULL toward Florida and dissapate it. We will have to wait and see.
I'm guessing it is backing ever so slowly SW as that is discussed in the 8:00 TWD. However, not by by much so lets just assume it backs about 0- 100 miles and High pressure on top with Frances coming thru. Looking at HPC it looks like a NW turn and then back to WNW across Central Florida.
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