Schools closed in Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

Here the schools,universities and goverment workers have the day off as hurricane Frances will bring the fringe effects.We expect some tropical storm force winds in gusts especially in the mountains and in NE corner of the island.Rainfall will be in bands that will move thru as the eye passes to our north.But that will be the effects that Frances will bring so I think we dodged the big bullet.But I know that ahead other places will see the hurricane in full force so I pray for those who will be in the path in the Bahamas and somewhere in the US east coast that all goes well.

[Cyclone Runner]

You can almost see the entire eye on PR radar!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye, although safety is definitely a high priority, I think that they shouldn't have closed schools or had government workers take the day off. It was sure that the system would pass to the north of the island 24 hours ago. I will assure you that there will be plenty of dissappointments which might force them to regret the decision later. I think Puerto Rico will not receive any more rain than what you could get with a quick-moving summertime thunderstorm...

[caribepr]

Sure? 24 hours ago Culebra was under a hurricane watch...Charley is recent history about how "sure" anyone can be about what a storm will do. One day off to be at home doing whatever needs to be done in case of unforeseen changes in weather doesn't seem like anything worthy of regret...

[Cyclone Runner]

Sure? 24 hours ago Culebra was under a hurricane watch...Charley is recent history about how "sure" anyone can be about what a storm will do. One day off to be at home doing whatever needs to be done in case of unforeseen changes in weather doesn't seem like anything worthy of regret...

Precisely, caribepr
Closing schools and offices with a Cat 4 sitting on top of you is not only a most responsible decision but an imperative one!!

[cycloneye]

They did it as a precaution because we expect rain in bands and with the orografic effects from the mountains here the rain will be enhanced and wind gusts will come in those bands.IT is better to do that than be sorry later if somehing happens with children going to school.

[Hyperstorm]

It was quite sure the hurricane would pass north of the islands. The question was how close or how far.

I understand when they did issue the tropical storm watches, but warnings? Do you know what a warning means? It means tropical storm conditions are imminent. By the time they issued the warning at 5pm it became apparent that the hurricane was no longer going 270, but 280+ and wouldn't have much effect other than the outer bands.

I could understand that nobody was sure where this thing was headed days ago and even early yesterday morning, but by the afternoon things became clearer. The hurricane will probably pass a couple hundred miles north of the island.

Again, as I said in my original post, safety is a high priority, but when it becomes quite apparent that the hurricane was moving 280+ and not due west, it was quite logical that the hurricane would be further away by the time it came to the closest point to the island.

This could be an interesting debate, as the one that the meteorologists in the NWS San Juan had with meteorologist John Toohey Morales in 1999 regarding hurricane Jose and the warning system.

[gurutc]

A friend of mine from Port Charlotte wishes that forecasters had been more safe than sorry about Charley. He and his community were given a sense of security by the decisions made by experts based on "current paths" of that storm. If a storm that large is anywhere close you have to batten down and board up, period.

[Thunder44]

A friend of mine from Port Charlotte wishes that forecasters had been more safe than sorry about Charley. He and his community were given a sense of security by the decisions made by experts based on "current paths" of that storm. If a storm that large is anywhere close you have to batten down and board up, period.

I don't feel TPC forecasters should not be blamed for this. They had hurricane warning up and down the west coast of Florida. People should been more prepared for a hurricane that may go off track. It's not their fault people ignored the warnings or the media focused on the forecasted track to Tampa.

[gurutc]

It is far better to put up the warnings, close schools,etc. than not. It is very foolish to criticize the warnings posted for PR. It wasn't TPC at fault for Charley but instead the armchair (and media) mets who discounted the validity of the warning range.

[Cyclone Runner]

Example in point, Anguilla has already had 3 inches of rain in the last 5 hours even though the storm is far to her north. If you put this sort of hourly rainfall in the hills of Puerto Rico, there is a very high propability of flash floods--not at all the kind of situation you want your children out in.

[Brent]

A friend of mine from Port Charlotte wishes that forecasters had been more safe than sorry about Charley. He and his community were given a sense of security by the decisions made by experts based on "current paths" of that storm. If a storm that large is anywhere close you have to batten down and board up, period.

Why? They were in the middle of the HURRICANE WARNING area on Thursday at 5pm(23 hours before landfall!). Just because the cone pointed at Tampa didn't mean there wouldn't be significant effects in Port Charlotte.

[gurutc]

Yes Brent, I agree. I'm saying that it's prudent to put up the flags in PR in response to a previous post in this thread critical of the warnings in place.

Second-guessing TPC and NHC publicly in the media is a bad call, and leads less weather obsessed folk to ignore the real experts who properly put the warnings up for Port Charlotte and vicinity.

[Hyperstorm]

Yeah, don't misunderstand my point. The situation going on in Puerto Rico could be compared to the usual summertime thunderstorms or a tropical wave. A warning was probably not necessary especially by the time it was posted yesterday at 5pm when it was becoming apparent the more northerly component of the motion. It would have been almost impossible for the storm to go south than what it was at the 5pm advisory.

These kind of debates will usually happen and there is no need to blame someone for "criticizing", which BTW I have not done aggresively at all. I just gave my opinion of what could have been a better decision. I will never say anything about a warning that is meritable OR one that is posted for an uncertainty in the track. Again, days ago the uncertainty was there, but the time frame for a warning (24 hours) was not there.

I'm just talking about the definition of a warning meaning TS conditions are imminent. It will be hard to observe sustained winds of tropical storm force anywhere in the island. This will definitely be good news for the people in Puerto Rico.

[MBryant]

A friend of mine from Port Charlotte wishes that forecasters had been more safe than sorry about Charley. He and his community were given a sense of security by the decisions made by experts based on "current paths" of that storm. If a storm that large is anywhere close you have to batten down and board up, period.

Well said.

Just because the gun has only one bullet instead of 4 is no reason to play russian roulette if you don't have to.