Anegada and VIs to be the First to Feel Frances's Wrath

[Cyclone Runner]

The northern-most island of the British Virgin Islands (BVIs) is called Anegada or the Drowned Land.

Anegada is 10 miles long by 2 1/2 miles wide with extensive salt ponds, reaches its highest point at 28 feet, hence its name which means the "drowned land." Of coral reef origins, Anegada has "extruded" sixteen miles of sandy beaches with a primeval quality. Anegada is "guarded" by the famous Horseshoe Reef which, at eighteen miles long, is one of the world's largest coral reefs. The Population is 110 nestled around the principle hamlet of the Settlement. As this is being typed the outer feeder bands of this tightly wrapped annular storm are moving across the island.

Although it is likely to experience TS force winds and heavy rain with possible hurricane force gusts, the eye wall and major wind circumference of this large storm will remain over 100-150 km north of the BVIs.

One by one the remaining BVIs will go under the convection followed by the USVIs and then Northeastern Puerto Rico.

From this point forward, the storm will likely be a serious menace to many populated islands it will encounter in the next few days until likely landfall in the Southern USA.

[Cyclone Runner]

At 6:15 EST, Anegada (UK), St Maarten (Nd), Anguilla (UK), St Barthelemy (Fr) are all reporting breezy with intermittant gusts (20-30kts) and rain showers, but nothing too dramatic. Tortola (UK), the main BVI, is just reporting sustained winds 20 kts, breezy but no rain showers.

[Cyclone Runner]

7:00 AM Update from Anguilla

Well, it should be about 115 - 120 miles due north of us right now, but sure doesn't seem right.  Had a little shower about 2 AM, and another about 5:30 AM (both less than 0.01 in), and then the rain started in earnest a little after 6.  In less than an hour, we've had over 1.0 in.  Hear thunder every few minutes.  BUT - there is basically no wind!  Since the rain started, had a "gust" of  9, but pretty much 3 - 5 out of the west - northwest.  And the sea is pretty much flat.

This is too much to ask for - no wind and lots of rain!  Somebody's looking over all of us!

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

7:45 AM Update from Anguilla

Well, it's 7:45 here and haven't had any wind over 10 knots since around 6 AM  Had some gusts in the high teens between 1 AM and 6 AM, but nothing since then.  1.8 in. of rain and still coming down, but at times, the wind is 0.  Can't see any waves breaking on the north side of St. Martin, and the sea is calm.  My cistern and pool are "lovin' life"!!!

Let's hope this "drill" is pretty much over so I can put everything back outside.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

[Cyclone Runner]

UPDATE FROM USVI-ST JOHN

St John in the morning

From: "John and Lee Fuller" <jfuller AT islands.vi>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 07:36:33 -0400

7:30 am Cruz Bay, St John:  We're tucked into the hillside above Cruz Bay so we do not get direct winds until it shifts to the west (very rarely) so I cannot gage the intensity or direction but starting about 2am it was breezy here.  There is moderate chop in Pillsbury Sound (my view).  One of the Tortola ferries just left Cruz Bay, but all the St John Ferries are rafted up in the creek.  Maybe they are running to Red Hook, I'll keep an eye and ear out (heard them repositioning during the middle of the night).  

The rain held off till 6am with just under a tenth of an inch.  Radar shows that we got just a little of the outer bands of Frances and looks like more to come.  As the cistern is not chock-full, and most things that shouldn't get wet are under a tarp or secured in some way, I hope we do get some rain out of this.  Storm track looks like CPA will be about 1pm today.  Driest August in the 7 years I've kept records .. although I hate to catch up all at once the last day of the month! 

"Wandering" cat is still close by.  Must be something coming.

[Cyclone Runner]

8:45 Update from St John, USVI

Looks like storm "soon come"

From: <crabbys AT earthlink.net>

Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 08:48:15 -0600

Because of the close proximity of the storm's track to St. John, most folks
are taking Frances very seriously. Many boats have tucked into Hurricane
Hole and other protected areas along the eastern side of St. John. We spent
yesterday packing up items from our business, which is right along the
shoreline, and putting up hurricane shutters. Some people who are uncertain
about the safety of their homes have moved to stronger housing, and some
rental homes have moved vacationers away from the immediate water. Better
safe than sorry. However, we are ever hopeful that the storm will continue
to move northward and only graze us.

We are positioned up on the hillside overlooking Coral Bay (looking
easterly). It has been extremely overcast this morning -- a sharp contract
from last night when the full moom was shining brightly -- and we are
starting to see a light wind come through, with some ripling through the
water. The boats in Coral Bay turned last night -- they usually face East
(as the wind normally comes from that direction). Now the boats are turned
the exact opposite way. We are looking forward to some rain this afternoon
as it has been very dry, and are optimistic that the winds will stay
resonably low. If anything of significance happens we will post again,
Crabby

[Cyclone Runner]

9:25 AM UPDATE FROM ST THOMAS

From: RonUSVI AT aol.com
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 09:29:15 EDT

Breezes picking up a little. Planes landing at CEKA from the West. Seaborne has some flights. Tortola ferries running. No sight of any St. John ferries. Few boats moored in the harbor, all facing west. No Coast Guard boats docked or anywhere to be seen. Still see a little blue in the skies although loads of gray!

Ronnie Lockhart

[Cyclone Runner]

8:50 Update from Anguilla

As of 8:50, been getting a little more wind the past half hour (15 - 20 knot gusts out of the W-SW), and rain squalls (2.61 in. so far) and some thunder every once in a while, but that's about it.  I just drove the western half of the island, and it's pretty quite.  The north shore has some surf, but nothing much.  The south beaches are actually pretty nice - calm and small surf.  Saw some blue sky over St. Martin a few minutes ago, but now raining hard again.  What few boats are in Road Bay are riding the small swells with no problems.

For our friends to the west, since we were I think the closest to the center as far as Puerto Rico, I would not expect much more than we got - just a lot of rain.  Now as far as the T & C's and the Bahamas, that's another story.  Good luck to you folks - hope it goes north.
 
Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

[Cyclone Runner]

If you look at the San Juan radar, you can now see heavy rain and wind bands moving into Anegada and the other British Virgin Islands. Anguilla has already recorded 3 inches and they only got the very outer bands, so expect significantly higher rainfall totals in Anegada and the other British Virgin Islands.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... tjua.shtml