Pendulum swings

[Portastorm]

I realize I'm not following every model run at every issuance on Frances .... but as an interested observer, it sure seems to me like there isn't much consistency.

Every 12 hrs there are all kinds of posts "left, left!" and then this morning "right, right!" There's more flip-flopping going on than what you'll see on the griddle at IHOP on a Sunday morning!!

I just wonder if any model run can be trusted beyond 72 hrs with Frances. And although it was 15 years ago, like Air Force Met brought up yesterday, I remember how Gilbert was supposed to turn to the northwest and clobber us in Texas when in fact, the storm stayed on a steady-state course and rolled into Mexico. Is Frances becoming big and powerful enough that she'll dictate her own course?

[HoumaLa]

Please correct me if i'm wrong but I always thought when a storm is as big as Frances it doesn't change corse that fast or that it is hard to change it's corse

[rtd2]

QUOTE"Please correct me if i'm wrong but I always thought when a storm is as big as Frances it doesn't change corse that fast or that it is hard to change it's corse"



Yes and No most strong storms stay on an initial heading but strong H.P. and troughs can turn them like in the case of floyd ect. As far as ull's strong storms can eat there lunch! but as a rule of thumb I would say its harder cause strong storms start effecting there surronding enviroment

[Portastorm]

That is what I have understood as well .... larger, more powerful tropical cyclones can create their own environments (atmospherically) and perhaps be a little more independent from the effects of other forces pulling and tugging on it. That being said, I also know that nothing can go against the laws of physics.

[dhweather]

I realize I'm not following every model run at every issuance on Frances .... but as an interested observer, it sure seems to me like there isn't much consistency.

Every 12 hrs there are all kinds of posts "left, left!" and then this morning "right, right!" There's more flip-flopping going on than what you'll see on the griddle at IHOP on a Sunday morning!!

I just wonder if any model run can be trusted beyond 72 hrs with Frances. And although it was 15 years ago, like Air Force Met brought up yesterday, I remember how Gilbert was supposed to turn to the northwest and clobber us in Texas when in fact, the storm stayed on a steady-state course and rolled into Mexico. Is Frances becoming big and powerful enough that she'll dictate her own course?

That's just part of it. There are many models, and when one varies
left or right, some people react strongly.

I generally do not follow the models past 72 hours.

There is no "perfect" model, hence we have so many.

And yes, Gilbert did not deviate his path one bit, I remember that storm vividly.