What about the GOM?

mawmawofseven · #1 Postby **mawmawofseven** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:59 pm

Do we worry in New Orleans?

rtd2 · #2 Postby **rtd2** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:04 pm

lets see how I can answer this.... I've been listening to WWL 870 all day Met said theis A.M. "francis will turn north later in the week and affect northern fla. to georgia. Just a few minutes ago Same met said " we hope francis will begin her turn late thurs or early fri but if it doesnt she could cross central fla. into eastern GOMEX :eek:

so YES stay tuned!

LaBreeze · #3 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:09 pm

Gut feeling - New Orleans and points west will be just fine. Enjoy the Labor Day weekend but always keep an eye on the GOM - always.

mobilebay · #4 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Gut feeling - New Orleans and points west will be just fine. Enjoy the Labor Day weekend but always keep an eye on the GOM - always.

I have siad this for days now. I believe Frances will end up in the Gulf at some point. I also thin it will turn north into the Florida Panhandle. I'm no Homer , thats just the way I haave felt since day one.

bigmike · #5 Postby **bigmike** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:56 pm

I have access to emergency managment information for a nwfla county and the current thinking is that if the cane does get into gom it will go into extreme ne gulf and then turn right and head for ga. Odds are 30% and odds getting west of appalachicola bay are less than 10%. This is an east coast event.

AL Chili Pepper · #6 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:01 pm

I also think it'll go east of us, and the best thing is....those deep blue skies on the western flank of a hurricane.

mobilebay · #7 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:06 pm

bigmike wrote:I have access to emergency managment information for a nwfla county and the current thinking is that if the cane does get into gom it will go into extreme ne gulf and then turn right and head for ga. Odds are 30% and odds getting west of appalachicola bay are less than 10%. This is an east coast event.

You are talking about people that is going by the NHC track. Listen to me...It Very possible for this to enter the Gulf. Remember the track is based on a week trough coming down at the end of the forecast period. how many times have you seen frontal passages delayed later on. One or two day lag time in the trough could make a huge track error.

bigmike · #8 Postby **bigmike** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:30 pm

you could be right. I do tend to trust the people who provide the information to our emergency planners. They've been doing this a long time and have a great track record. But I think your scenario is a long shot at best just imo.

#9 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:59 pm

Well, we know this, it looks like Florida will be impacted by a major hurricane at the end of this week. After that, who knows......

#10 Postby **MGC** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:09 pm

New Orleans should be in the clear. I am thinking a landfall between Jacksonville and West Palm Beach at this time....MGC

What about the GOM?

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