Would you evacuate?

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Would you evacuate?

#1 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:59 pm

We're in Central FL, 30 miles inland. I really want to evacuate for this storm. What good can we do by staying home? Not like we can hold the roof on. Chad hasn't really expressed much of an opinion on whether we should stay or go. Would you evacuate if you were me? Wait until the forecasts are more definitive? But would that be too late? Supposed to hit Saturday, so leave Thursday? Where to go? Tennessee? I don't want to drive us into the path of Frances. I'm really not sure what would be the best thing to do. Our local news has not reported the need to evacuate as of yet. My friends and family are all up in the air about this too. I hate this uncertainty. Thanks for any advice.
...Jennifer...
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#2 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:18 pm

stay.......my home is as safe as the shelters imo
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#3 Postby Skywatch_NC » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:29 pm

hurricanedude wrote:stay.......my home is as safe as the shelters imo


Mike currently the NHC has Frances track near your area by Saturday...I'd evacuate by Thurs. if I were you. :wink: This storm is nothing to mess with, Bro. :eek:
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chadtm80

#4 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:36 pm

Just to give a better Idea of our location and the landfall point.. We are the Red Dot

Image
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#5 Postby bree4bryce » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:37 pm

We are still debating on whether to stay or go...
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#6 Postby CFL » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:44 pm

Mr. and Mrs. Chad -

I live in the panhandle of Florida and resided here when Hurricane Opal hit in 1995. My advice would be if you are going to evacuate, please be prepared to do so as soon as the watches/warnings are posted for your area. We had awful traffic congestion in 1995. It was stop, it was go, and on and on. Our usual 6 hour trip to Decatur, Alabama took over 10 hours and we were among those who left fairly early. Please stay safe whatever you both choose!
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#7 Postby msbee » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:55 pm

I think if it was me, I woudl secure my home as tightly as possible and I would go.
This storm is serious business.
The anxiety of living through a storm like this would make me a crazy person.
there is nothing worse than being locked inside a tightly shuttered house and listen for hours to the sound of wind howling and things crashing and wondering what is going on.
been there, done that, and its no fun to say the least.

and if I was in the bahamas or Turks and caicos, I think I would definitely get out. I would be terrified of the storm surge. Those islands are all at sea level.
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#8 Postby deadcities » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:11 pm

I'm about 7 miles inland in Jacksonville, FL. I'm planning to stay put if it heads this way.
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#9 Postby Pebbles » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:15 pm

If I were in your shoes..and that track looked that close to my house....I'd be getting heck outta dodge! I'd be visiting family in another state.

But then again I have a large family with young kiddos and no way would I want to deal with or put the kids through a storm like Frances or it's aftermath.....until I had to.
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#10 Postby anjou » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:57 pm

Flights have been way cheap... check Southwest, Delta's Song (http://www.flysong.com) ... given the still-iffy path, easier to fly out than to drive out. Probably cheaper too if you can stay with friends. Southwest has discount non-advance rates for seniors too. Would go Wednesday.. why mess with later?
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#11 Postby breeze » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Tennessee? Jenn, I've got extra sleeping space
for you and Chad and our little Dustin that you're
welcome to!

Really - this hurricane looks to be what my dear
Pop would have called "a booger"! Just going by
the category that it is now, plus, what category
it COULD be by landfall....uh-uuuh....nadda....
I say "Bail out!"
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#12 Postby soonertwister » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:26 pm

Anyone who wishes to ride out a category 4 or 5 hurricane needs to think long and hard about the potential problems such a decision could bring.

Here's a partial description of hurricane potential:

Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

That is for a category 4 hurricane. It's more serious with a category 5, with possible inundation of land by fast-moving storm surge up to 10 miles inland, and considerably farther along tidal inlets and streams. If you happen to be in the right quadrant of the storm shortly after landfall, the consequence can be quite dire. This isn't something that is just a picture out of a book, it could really happen to people.

If a category 5 hurricane comes ashore, all wood frame housing is at considerable risk, no matter how well built. People miles inland can find themselves swept into raging storm surge waters and drowned. Large trees can become uprooted and fly through the air, possibly into your own home. If your home suffers any kind of storm-caused partial curtainwall failure, you are immediately at risk of having your entire residence collapse, and even be blown away, with you in the rubble.

You may be living in what you believe to be a safe shelter from the storm, only to suddenly have your entire roof blow away in one piece. Total structural failure will follow within minutes in most cases.

Should you attempt to ride out the storm, if the center comes close to your location, you may have to endure hurricane force winds, possibly to 100 miles per hour or even much more, for literally hours on end. You will be inside in the dark and hearing large objects bang into your safe haven repeatedly for hours.

If you are one of the lucky ones, when the storm passes you will find yourself in the middle of a living nightmare of destruction all around you. Homes in your neighborhood may be destroyed, even homes you thought could not be severely damaged by a storm. Your entire world may ben turned entirely upside down for literally weeks before things even start to return to normal.

You may face any of the conditions below:

If your home is damaged, wild creatures of all varieties may try to share your shelter.

You may have to live your life for weeks on end during daylight, because it could be a VERY long time before your power is restored.

You may not have safe drinking water for weeks on end, except that supplied by outside agencies, or made safe by boiling or other purification means at your disposal. You will not be able to boil your water on an electric appliance, unless you have a power generator, and plenty of fuel for it.

You and your family will be at risk after the storm from possible electrocution from downed power lines. You could get dysentery from exposure to dirty water or close contact with those who are ill. If a sudden illness comes upon you or your family, emergency medical care may not be available for weeks.

You won't be able to find gasoline in most cases, possibly for weeks on end. When your transportation runs out of gas, you will be on foot after that.

Others who might not have prepared as you have may be desperate for their lives and those of their families. In a major disaster, all law and order may break down, and you can be at risk from bands of vigilantes or single individuals stealing from you the supplies that keep you safe, warm, and fed. You may feel more vulnerable to danger than you could have ever imagined could happen. As you listen in the dark quiet evening, or while you sleep, your tranquility may be interrupted by the sound of gunfire, or angry voices of people in disputes.

If you venture far from your home, you may become disoriented and lost due to the loss of natural landmarks to guide your way. All signs may be gone, buildings may be destroyed, most trees will be flattened or blown away. For some time after the storm, roads will be impassible due to debris or flooding or being washed out by flooding.

That's just part of the list. Evacuation or staying at home is every person's personal decision. The dire circumstances may not come your way. But if you decide not to evacuate, there won't be any chance to change your mind if the nightmare chooses your location.

This is not to scare anyone, but to advise them that unless they are aware of the extent of danger and completely comfortable with the measures that they have taken to protect themselves and their families, and the potential consequences even with their best efforts, then they should think very long and hard before riding out a really powerful hurricane, especially anywhere near coastal-linked water or within a couple of hours of hurricane landfall. Of course, if evacuation of your property is ordered, you should of course leave immediately for whatever safer shelter you can find.
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I'm outta here ...

#13 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:36 pm

My wife and I already had planned to go to Connecticut and Boston for a long weekend to visit family and attend a wedding. She left with our 2-year old today ... I'm scheduled to fly out tomorrow. I did think long and hard about what to do and wanted to stay in order to protect what might be left after the storm. But I lost the "discussion" :wink: and will be boarding the plane tomorrow night after shuttering up the house. Not scheduled to get back until Monday.

For reference, I live in Jupiter, FL which would definitely get sustained TS force winds and very possibly hurricane force gusts ... if the exact forecast were to verify. But with this thing only forecast to miss us by 100 miles or less to the east, the margin of error is incredibly slim. It wouldn't take much for us to get in serious trouble. We are in a required evacuation zone only for major hurricanes (Frances certainly qualifies), but not directly on the water or anything. I can only hope for the best.

So for what it's worth, that's one evacuees story...
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#14 Postby anjou » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:02 pm

SoonerTwister's comment about the potential breakdown of 'law and order' may sound a little dramatic, but I read an account that sounded a lot like that from SW Florida after just Charley. A group of neighbors were pretty scared and took turns on vigils with shotguns, keeping everybody out of the area... the reason according to one woman who was interviewed, was that they had no communication with the outside world and had heard rumors of widespread breakdown of law and order. (I don't know where their portable radios were.. or if they had any.) But do factor in being out of the loop for info as a real possibility (and definitely have some way to get info and have lots of extra batteries). While it couldn't hurt to unplug sensitive electronics before you leave, one way to potentially tell when it's safe to come back, ie, when your power's finally back on (!!!) .. provided your home still exists.. is to leave the answering machine on if you have an actual physical answering machine, not just the phone company's service, which is not physically located at your home. If you reach your own voice on voicemail, your home- or at least part of it - is up and running.
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#15 Postby das8929 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:11 pm

Wow I am seriously starting to get scared. Before I was being kind of a wishcaster but no I hope the center doesnt fall over my area. I thought my house would stand up to it well, but that long post changed things. I am seriously considering evacuating now.
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#16 Postby dhweather » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:16 pm

chadtm80 wrote:Just to give a better Idea of our location and the landfall point.. We are the Red Dot




Dude, you've got a big house!!! :)
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#17 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:23 pm

I would evacuate. AT LEAST, go to a shelter, especially if it's a Cat 3 or stronger. Cat 1 I would probably stay(as long as I'm in a sturdy house). Cat 2, maybe, it depends.
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#18 Postby incogneato » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:46 pm

I am starting to get very frightened as well :(

We're in Port St Lucie (far enough inland to be away from the storm surge) and in a newly constructed (in the last 3 years) CBS home with hurricane shutters. Due to logistics and finances it's not an option for us to leave in advance of this storm; all flames aside what do you think the chances are for us to ride things out in the house? (assuming the worst and that the eye made landfall here).

(very skittish) 'Neato
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#19 Postby simplykristi » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:08 pm

If it were me, I would evacuate.

Kristi
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#20 Postby Shullate » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:16 pm

When Floyd was approaching Wilmington, Nc a few years back as a Cat 4 we decided to head up to stay with family in Charlotte. We didn't leave until the morning of the day it made landfall. A drive that normally takes 3.5 hours took over 8 hours to make. If the storm had taken a path inland like Hugo it's likely that we along with thousands of other motorist would have been killed.
I'm not advising you don't evacuate, but if you do decide to leave- get out as soon as you can. Your house is a safer place to be than your car.
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