Miami once again stares down the barrel of the gun

[Tri-State_1925]

Although people openly admit that Jim Cantore is "excited" about this hurricane, when I posted about how Charley would fail to gain legendary status by missing Tampa Bay (as it has), and was disappointing those intrigued by extreme storm damage, I was vilified beyond belief. Let me just say that I expected that almost everyone had evacuated Tampa. I do not wish to see people killed, but just like hurricanes are a fact of life for Floridians, the catastrophic damamge that a cateogry 5 storm can cause is a fact. And if you don't think that a category 5 storm will absolutely destory a metropolis like Miami, then you are crazy. Like before, I don't think I am being insensitive. This is what the people who built Miami into what it is today fear.

That brings me to another topic -- the NHC and NWS will be under close scruitny, especially following their FAILURES with Charley. In the space of 4 weeks, another one of the "Big 3" cities is under threat. Absolutely amazing. Hey, even if you think the NHC has ever predicted the landfall location of major hurricanes accurately, the NHC basically said last time - 'Don't follow our that center line on our forcast maps'. Well why do they even PUT those center lines on the map if they know they aren't going to be accurate? At 11 AM on the morning that Charley made landfall, the NHC still forcasted the eye of the Charley heading over Tampa...and they believed that that's where the storm was headed. But the NHC big shots said that "We never said Tampa -- that was the media". Then they went on the rip the public, basically saying that they were stupid. Absolutely outrageous. I could not believe what I was reading.

Why not just give the strike range and emphasize that everyone within that range should get the hell out? You cannot be serious if you think that the people of Florida heard this message with Charley. Well, maybe when it was too late.

You all know about the NHC/NWS's failures to forcast the strength of Charley. Simply forcasting a "major hurricane" when the storm is already 110 mph, isn't enough information for your average Joe living in Florida. I'm know that a lot of people in the Fort Myers/Port Charlotte area thought that they could deal with even a 115-120 mph storm -- they said as much in TV interviews on the day of impact. But 145 mph? I don't know about that.

After failing to warn citizens of Florida about Charley's potential strength, what will they do this time with Frances? In my amateur opinion (that correctly predicted a strong category 4 Charley), it's not too hard to forcast the strength of this one. It's already a strong category 4 storm. Yes, its strength will fluctuate some, but in the end the lack of wind shear and very warm waters around the Bahamas will likely bring this thing to maximum strength at impact. However, tonight I heard the USUAL hesitation from the so-called "weather experts" -- who simply never seem willing to say "category 5" as if category 5 is some holy realm that can't be considered. What I heard tonight was "Florida, this could be a strong 4 storm...or stronger." What is this? Well I'm sure the people of Florida would like to know. Uh, it's already a strong 4, guys. How about breaking the news to the people that this storm could go well beyond the lower limit of a category 5 storm...that this storm could easily get to the point where it will destroy everything in its path, living or not? Because this serious, and I am ONCE AGAIN not hearing the goods from these "experts", who as usual seem to be holding out for some miracle that will weaken this storm, instead of laying down the ugly facts. Considering the numerous surprises they've had in the past, you'd think they would have learned by now.


However, the rate of Andrew's westward acceleration over the southwestern Atlantic was greater than initially forecast. In addition, the NHC forecast a rate of strengthening that was less than what occurred during Andrew's period of rapid deepening.

[frankthetank]

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