I don't like to see this

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:26 pm

Looking at the lastest satellite loop of Frances it sure "looks" like she
has gone back to taking more of westerly course and still moving at a pretty good clip. Please focus on the last few frames to see what I mean.
Yeah I know it maybe just a wobble but what if it's not? This storm needs to start turning more northerly to avoid Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#2 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:29 pm

I know what you mean. If this doesn't begin to change, then Frances may become the model for the models to follow.

#3 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:30 pm

Been noticing that. Derek and I talked earlier about the ridge that seems to be building to the NNW of Frances. You can see it on the WV loop. The fact that Frances is still east of the ridge led me to believe the WNW track would flatten some...but I didn't expect a due west. I know it is probably a jog...but it matches what the WV loop shows. You can see the ridge near 30/70 and how it is building.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Sean in New Orleans · #4 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:31 pm

I see what you are talking about, Stormcenter. It is more than a wobble the last few frames, and Frances is moving at a good clip. As powerful of a storm as this is, this hurricane better put on the emergency brake real quick to make the kind of turn they are forecasting, IMO.

#5 Postby **btangy** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:34 pm

If you look at the WV loop carefully, there seems to be a tad of E shear. The outflow is still the best it's been throughout the storm's life though.

btsgmdad · #6 Postby **btsgmdad** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:35 pm

I don't know if I am seeing things or not but it looks like the eye is continuing to contract.

#7 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:35 pm

The eye is still within range of TJUA BR248 in Puerto Rico, and it seems that she goes close to due west for a few frames, then jogs to the WNW, then west again, then WNW.

For the past year or two, the NHC forecast tracks have been relatively close to the actual landfall of storms. Looking at the latest forecast track from the NHC, do they know something we don't? How do they get such a sharp turn to the north? I just don't see it.

#8 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:36 pm

It looks like I am going to loose sleep for the 2 night out of 3 nights this past week. I dont think Im gonna get any sleep for the remainder of the week!

<RICKY>

btsgmdad · #9 Postby **btsgmdad** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:40 pm

At least you have a good reason to lose sleep, those of us nuts up here in Michigan who are 15 year Hurricane junkies are the ones who should go to bed, but just can't.

NFLnut · #10 Postby **NFLnut** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:43 pm

You guys are a lot smarter than me. I'm just a nervous bystander.

If it continues without making the northerly turn, wouldn't that take it through the Straits (sorry Keys!) and to the GOM, missing most of FL? I don't understand why she would have to "put on the brakes" or "start turning more northerly to avoid FL." Obviously I'd rather it "do a Floyd" (sorry Carolinas), but it seems now that FL's best scenario is westerly and through the Straits as long as she doesn't re-enter FL on the Left Coast a la Charley.

School me ..

NFLnut · #11 Postby **NFLnut** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:46 pm

skysummit wrote:For the past year or two, the NHC forecast tracks have been relatively close to the actual landfall of storms. Looking at the latest forecast track from the NHC, do they know something we don't? How do they get such a sharp turn to the north? I just don't see it.

NHC certainly blew it with Charley! They were "close" (about 200 miles) but no cigar there!

Wainfleeter · #12 Postby **Wainfleeter** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:49 pm

btsgmdad wrote:At least you have a good reason to lose sleep, those of us nuts up here in Michigan who are 15 year Hurricane junkies are the ones who should go to bed, but just can't.

Yes, here in Ontario too. But, I think it is because we all have many friends in Frances proposed path.

#13 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:49 pm

NFLnut wrote:
skysummit wrote:For the past year or two, the NHC forecast tracks have been relatively close to the actual landfall of storms. Looking at the latest forecast track from the NHC, do they know something we don't? How do they get such a sharp turn to the north? I just don't see it.

NHC certainly blew it with Charley! They were "close" (about 200 miles) but no cigar there!

Yea, you're right. I was in California during that time so I wasn't able to keep up with the tracks.

Sean in New Orleans · #14 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:53 pm

NFLnut wrote:You guys are a lot smarter than me. I'm just a nervous bystander.

If it continues without making the northerly turn, wouldn't that take it through the Straits (sorry Keys!) and to the GOM, missing most of FL? I don't understand why she would have to "put on the brakes" or "start turning more northerly to avoid FL." Obviously I'd rather it "do a Floyd" (sorry Carolinas), but it seems now that FL's best scenario is westerly and through the Straits as long as she doesn't re-enter FL on the Left Coast a la Charley.

School me ..

A storm with this kind of magnitude and momentum isn't going to make a turn unless it is moving slower than Frances presently is or is almost stationery--it almost never happens.

frankthetank · #15 Postby **frankthetank** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:57 pm

I'm up here in WI...not looking forward to winter and am wondering what Miami is going to look like when i go down there in a few months....Might be going somewhere else...

rtd2 · #16 Postby **rtd2** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:01 am

S.FLA THEN GOMEX :eek:

HAVENT REALLY SEEN ANYTHING MORE THAN WWNW NO REAL WNW

#17 Postby **wlfpack81** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:03 am

NFLnut'

Think of it as a big 18-wheeler driving down a road fast. In order for it to make a proper turn it has to slow down first. The same laws of physics applies to hurricanes. The bigger they are and the faster they move, the more they have to slow down before they can make any kind of turn.

Sanibel · #18 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:05 am

I believe I also see a slight veer more west in the last few frames.

If this doesn't correct it will bring Frances much closer to the Turks & Caicos.

I also see the ridge still pushing west over Florida...

NFLnut · #19 Postby **NFLnut** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:05 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:A storm with this kind of magnitude and momentum isn't going to make a turn unless it is moving slower than Frances presently is or is almost stationery--it almost never happens.

So again. What does that mean? I guess I will be more direct, at the expense of looking selfish. I live in the Orlando area. If it continues without "the turn," what does that mean for those of us here in central FLorida? Does it pass well to the south (Miami/Ft Lauderdale), or does 'no turn' mean I should make preparations to bend over and kiss my .. :roll:

NFLnut · #20 Postby **NFLnut** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:07 am

wlfpack81 wrote:NFLnut'

Think of it as a big 18-wheeler driving down a road fast. In order for it to make a proper turn it has to slow down first. The same laws of physics applies to hurricanes. The bigger they are and the faster they move, the more they have to slow down before they can make any kind of turn.

I got my answer .. and that makes sense. But with its current track (I'm having trouble with its current position, direction, and the curvature of the map) does it pass south of us?

I don't like to see this

I don't like to see this

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