Frances Advisories

[Cyclone Runner]

Re: Frances Continues To Strengthen

Author: bonitris (63.130.215.---)
Date:   08-31-04 19:26

Hi from the Turks and Caicos.... It is a beautiful evening here on Provo ...I just returned from IGA Supermarket all is calm and surprisingly no-one in the lineups only a few people shopping.. So I presume most people have completed their shopping and Hurricane Preparations .All my shutters are in place.
If you know anyone on Grand Turk they have moved to the Ridge ..Higher Elevation. to wait out Frances.
We expect Frances to plow through here sometime tomorrow we are watching the forward speed.
Government closed down at noon today and PPC the Power company will turn off power only if a line goes down or the wind reaches 65 mph
The airport has been very busy the planes having been coming and going all day as all the tourists have been evacuated from the resorts.
AA has canceled all flights to and from Provo until 9/7 that's right next Tuesday!!! Prepare for the Worst... Hope for the Best..And give support to the people that are affected by Frances..Send all your good thoughts our way..
Wishing all LOVE! LIGHT !! and LAUGHTER !!! FROM PROVO BEAUTIFUL BY NATURE
Will post as power and time dictate

tricia.andy@tciway.tc   

Hurricane Frances
From: "Ernie Jackson" <ejacksonnorma AT hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 11:29:12 +0000

Hi:  A friend of mine sent me your email.  We live on the island of Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands.  We have been issued a hurricane watch from the National Hurricane Centre on their 5:00 a.m. advisory.  The advisories are every 6 hours.

Two websites which we check every 6 hours are: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and how close can it get:  http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm.   We find these websites excellent.  We also watch CNN at ten to the hour but their biggest concern is how soon the storms will hit the U.S.A.

It is very nerve wracking tracking the storm but all we can do now is watch and wait.  We have our hurricane shutters on the house and our water and canned goods.  We have 5 patio doors and have shutters that cover the doors  that we can just pull  closed at the last moment.  Our regular windows have steel shutters which fit in place.  There has been a lot of activity at the hardware store with people buying plywood to cover their doors and windows.

This is our 7th hurricane season in the Turks and Caicos and every year we get a close call but so far have escaped.  Unless it swings north I think this is our year to experience a hurricane.  One report we read said that hurricane force winds are experienced within 70 miles of the eye and the latest prediction for us is that we may be 86 miles from the centre.  That means we will experience tropical force winds.

We expect to lose power.  The power will be cut off when the winds hit 65 mph or when a power line is knocked down.  We are told the winds will pick up tomorrow about noon, as the eye is expected to be closest to us about 2:00 a.m. Thursday.  The winds usually pick up about l2 hours before the strike.

The Red Cross has held a few emergency planning meetings.  We have access to a satellite phone should we lose communications. 

Hope this email gives you some info.  I will keep you posted as long as I can access the internet.

APCEDI
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

[Sean in New Orleans]

...we could be looking at a major crisis. Time is running out and the NHC has made S. Florida look like it wasn't going to get hit the entire time. Maybe they see something I don't, but, I hope S. Florida has completed all necessary initial preparations for a major landfalling hurricane and citizens have plans and destinations for evacuating. Has anyone heard of the preparations around the Miami metro area?? All I really recall hearing on the news is about the RNC...

[Canelaw99]

I'm a Homestead resident, and it seems that a lot of people in the area are taking this storm seriously. I went to Publix today and the water was pretty well cleared off the shelves, as it was at several other gocery stores in the area. I know some people are preparing, but unfortunately, not everyone. I'm afraid that the NHC will let us know too late that it's headed our way...

[btsgmdad]

I've seen a few stories on TWC show some folks stocking up in Miami.

[Cyclone Runner]

Frances/Turks & Caicos/Provo Info
From: "jeffcampbell AT hfx.eastlink.ca" <jeffcampbell AT hfx.eastlink.ca>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 23:02:36 -0400

Hello,

My wife and I are residents of Provo. We left the island around 14:30
today on the AA flight to Miami. The airport was busy but not hectic. The
tourists were concerned but most seemed more annoyed than anything else.
Lineups were long and some tensions erupted in the security line as people
tried to jockey for position relative to their flight departures. The
security staff stepped in and sorted things out and people seemed to be
making their flights without trouble. I have an unconfirmed report the
last flight out was around 10pm tonight.

We spent yesterday and this morning working with neighbours to put up
plywood and any other protections available. General faith that the storm
wouldn't be hitting us seemed to evaporate late yesterday and preparations
began in earnest across the island. As recently as mid-morning there still
seemed to be plywood available at the local Do-It center, and despite other
stories at other locations, the price seemed to hold steady around $27-$30
a sheet. A constant issue seemed to be burning out the conrete drill bits,
we'll have multiple on hand next time, as well as a hammer drill (thanks
for Christina and Tim for the loan of the drill). Is there a link from the
stormcarib site on how to properly use plywood to board up a building?
This is our first caribbean hurricane and there seem to be various
approaches. We want to get educated for the next one.

We prepared our hurricane kit in detail, as we had some concern we might
not make it out. Every indication is that if the storm hits, and it is
looking increasingly likely it will be a fairly direct hit, that people
will need those kits. We were taken by surprise last year when a hurricane
hit in Canada and we weren't prepared at all. If you haven't been through
this before - heed all the hurricane prep advice available in your region.


We are scheduled to fly back in on Sunday morning, so when I saw a previous
update from someone on Provo indicating AA wasn't flying until the 7th, I
was concerned. I contacted AA and after a long time on hold while they
investigated, they informed me that they had no information indicating a
hold until the 7th. The customer service rep indicated to me that the
moment the airport was opened for traffic AA intended to start flying in.
However, it wouldn't be the first time the field and the back office
weren't in synch. We'll see what happens closer to Sunday.

For those who don't know the geography of Provo, a large part of the land
is at sea level, and while there are some areas of elevation, a significant
number of homes and businesses will be directly threatened by the storm and
any associated surge in water levels. There are also some very low lying
(valley) areas where flooding could cause severe damage. Our condo at the
golf course is only about 2 feet above sea level - and while it is not
directly on the beach, any material surge will likely reach it. We've
heard various unconfirmed reports from other islands that Frances has
passed of surges - but I haven't had that confirmed by the weather network.
Can anyone out there confirm? I don't want to fear monger and I remain
optimistic the flooding will be minimal if any. I have seen some footage
of flooding from Puerto Rico (outlying island), but it was impossible to
determine the extent. According to the Weather Network reports the winds
only hit about 20 MPH as Frances passed PR.

It feels very strange not to be in our adopted home, and our thoughts and
prayers are with our friends on Provo.

-Jeff & Karen

[WeatherEmperor]

No mention of any sort of evacuations however we could be hearing some planning of the sort sometime late tomorrow.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

I topped off my supplies and checked that I still know where I have shutter hardware etc. this weekend. I was far from the only one in my neighborhood.

That said, I think a lot of people are oblivious.

[Eyes2theSkies]

I have family in Stuart, FL. They went to 3 different stores and the shelves were cleaned out of water, bread, peanut butter, spagettios, tuna and batteries. So apparently, they're taking it seriously on the Treasure Coast!

[Sean in New Orleans]

I hope so---I'm sure Central Florida and the area around Cocoa is practically boarded up---but, I'm just hoping the 2+ million around metro Miami are, in some way, mentally prepared for a Category 4 hurricane possibly making a direct hit on the metro area---lest we forget Charley and the turn so soon??

[DCA]

Miami metro (as in the government recognized Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA) is 5 million people. Miami Dade is near 2.3m, Broward is somewhere near 1.6m and Palm Beach is just over 1m and mostly in the southern part of the county. Thats the fourth most populous Metropolitan Statistical Area in the United States. Best case: this thing goes in north of West Palm and passes over as few as possible (eye misses So FL, but also goes south of MCO and TPA) Of course then its in the GOM!

[Pebbles]

There is still time to prep safely and completely but if not alraedy started need to BEGIN PREPS NOW! While it sounds like some are..if you haven't please do!

[Sean in New Orleans]

I was referring to Miami-Dade...if that's what matters.

[calidoug]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Could be part of a jog... could be a resumption of 270-280 vector again...

Doug

[Dean4Storms]

Agree with you there. Not much latitude at all in the past hour. If this continues till morning with no turn toward 290-300 then it is pretty much over as far as any landfall north of central Florida.

[EDR1222]

Glad I am not the only one seeing that. Maybe an increasing threat for South Florida. It will be interesting to see if the track is further south at 5 am or maybe by 11 am.

[ericinmia]

I agree, i posted that a few hours ago... that is the most accurate way to off the cuff track the storm. If she continues this same heading for more than the next 6 hours without a much more northward jog, there will be some interesting situations unraveling tomorrow monring.
-Eric

[Air Force Met]

Add that to the hour it moves west before the eclipse and that is 2 hours of a westward movement

[rtd2]

west all day with a hiccup north here and there...S.FLA THE GOMEX!

[calidoug]

Another little hiccup WNW just now in the radar loop... looking at the 1:03 to 1:55 AST timeframe.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMFL 010702
AFDMFL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
FUTURE TRACK OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FORECAST AS OF THE 11 PM AUG 31ST ADVISORY CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR MORE OF A NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING THIS
POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THEN INTO EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK IS NEVER A
CERTAINTY...AND SO EVERYONE SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST
ADVISORIES FROM NHC.NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...ACTING TO SPARK A
FEW STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE STRONGER WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN LESS SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE THURSDAY...REDUCING THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY AND BEYOND WILL ALL
DEPEND ON FRANCES. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE E 10 KNOTS...THEN
BECOME NE 10-15 KNOTS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS WILL BE
SEEN THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS FRANCES NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 80 90 80 / 40 30 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 81 90 80 / 40 30 30 30
MIAMI 90 80 90 80 / 40 30 30 30
NAPLES 92 75 94 78 / 40 60 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

DG