Update, 9pm; 31 August 2004:
http://www.caribwx.com/marine.html
Frances strengthened a bit over the past few hours and has accelerated.
At 5pm, Hurricane Frances was located near 20.5N / 65.9W, movement 280T@15 kts. Max winds 120 kts, or 135 mph, with gusts to 145 kts, or 165 mph. Min pressure 938mb.
During the past 12 hrs Frances has moved 0.6 deg N Lat and 3.1 deg W Lon. Max winds are up 10 kts, but this is probably conservative, as there was some question as to whether Frances had as much as 110 kts this morning, and there is some question as to whether Frances has more like 125 kts tonight...so we can say winds increased about 15 kts. And during the past 12 hrs pressure has dropped 11 mb.
Currently, Frances is N of PuertoRico. The last of the squall bands are passing through the VirginIslands, and with winds backing from SW to S and SE overnight, things should look much better very soon in the VirginIslands.
N Coast of PuertoRico is on the S edge of CDO, with lots of strong squalls which will continue thru the night. S Coast of PuertoRico may just see high clouds and a few showers or squalls, but not too bad for the most part.
DominicanRepublic is just starting to feel the outer squall bands, with the 1st one extending just W of CaboSamana. Weather along the N Coast will deteriorate rapidly after midnight, with Frances passing about 100 mi N of CaboSanama before dawn, and 100-120 mi N of Luperon in the morning.
The real problem with Frances, in addition to the higher winds, which we anticipated would happen as part of her normal fluctuations, is the increase in forward speed. An upper-air RIDGE is steering Frances Westwards as expected. Consensus of the models weakens the RIDGE by Thu2, allowing Frances to slow down and turn more towards the NW. The problem is timing. If Frances continues to move Westwards rapidly, that suggests to me the RIDGE is stronger than anticipated, and the turn to the NW may happen at a later time. In addition, Frances would be in a position farther West then was anticipated throughout the forecast time periods.
So...while the consensus remains for the center of Frances to pass 50 mi N of Turks & Caicos at Noon Wed1, 50 mi N of LongIsland, 10 mi N of CatIsland Thu2 morning, and right along N Eluthera / Nassau / S Abaco / Freeport (Freeport Fri3 morning) / CapeCanaveral, FL Sat4 morning...every hour Frances moves 280T@15 kts puts her to the left of this track...and my confidence is not high that the RIDGE will weaken sufficiently during Wed1 and Thu2 to make up for this.
The worst place to be is near the eye or within 30-50 mi on the N side of the eye. The problem then becomes that more of the Bahamas will lie near the center or on the more-powerful N side of the center, and huge parts of the Bahamas could be devastated.
Let's make a point about grographical coverage. Charley caused severe damage over a path 6 mi wide when he hit PuntaGorda, FL. Frances curently has a 30 to 40 mi wide eye, with another outer ring of high winds. Some further strengthening is possible. Frances could bring 140 kt winds to a 40-50 mile wide area along her path, roughly paralleling the Island Chain. Winds of 100 kts could cut a path 100-120 mi wide. If this were to happen, I think it would cause more damage over a large area than any storm to have hit the Bahamas.
APCEDI
http://www.afap.org/apcedi
