This is OMINOUS... Steering LLW are straight from the east.

[ericinmia]

Here is another update to the scat overlay that i have been posting...

THIS is the Lower Level Steering winds...
I had predicted a week ago this to occur, and now (damn i was lucky, lol) there is a very stron east to west flow across upper central Fl down to the keys.

This is a BIG signification that this storm is not going to be tracking much to the north in the short term. You must stay on top of these maps, as they only give you insight into the short term (6-12 hours).
-Eric

[skysummit]

That really does not look good. Looking at the current position of the eye and the NHC forecast track, Frances is already approaching the southern tip of their "cone of error".

[mobilebay]

as you stated... That is for the Very short term only... That has nothing to do with future trends...

[ericinmia]

True...

lol
But many people on this board are monitoring the micrometers this storm is moving... so i thought this would be up their alley.

If you constantly watch this map, it will give you the general direction the storm most likely will be headed in the next few hours. As we get closer to land, this map becomes more imporatant. The models are good for long term, however this map shows more precision, and short time guidance.

Don't take this map as a trend that will necissarily continue... Either stay ontop of the map, or don't predicate any conclusions based on it.
-Eric

[btangy]

Low level flow doesn't steer storms of Frances' strength. You have to look at the deep layer flow which includes the upper level layers too.

[ericinmia]

Yes, upper level does have some effect... BUT there is not much in the way of true upper level steering currents infront of her right now...

There are some random, sporatic flow directions; These will not have that great an impact.

The only upper level winds that are in the general area are centered over southern fl. They are out of the North East, bending into the gulf.
-Eric

Here is the Upper Level wind pattern:

[btangy]

The absence of wind vectors on the map doesn't mean the flow is weak, but rather there are no clouds to track to measure the velocities. That's why you see a bunch of barbs with the outflow of Frances, but none ahead of it.

[ericinmia]

Sorry, i forgot to mention that i am not basing my judgements off soley that map.

Here are the GFS Short Term Carribean specific wind/temp predictions:

24 HOURS:


48 HOURS:



I have many maps, all that are pointing to the same short term conclusion
that this is not going to be tracking to rapidly to the north. It is not possible to post all the maps. I simply post a couple general ones that show a general consensus of what is occuring.
-Eric

[btangy]

Here are the steering layers:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[ericinmia]

And your point is?

They deviate from the above more specific maps in which way?

[btangy]

They don't, but that's because the flow Frances is caught in is deep layer easterly flow. When you have a sheared system that is still fairly strong, for instance, then the lower level flow is useless for determining movement even in the short range.