Is it over?

[azsnowman]

Is the monsoon (such as it where) over? It appears so.....what a disappointment that was. Rainfall total for the 2004 Monsoon season here at the house...5.67", FAR below the normal of 12.00" All we can hope and PRAY for is a strong(er) El Nino....we NEED a 200" snowpack this year, if NOT............................

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

My son and I (who has another forecasting stint with NAME this week) were discussing this the other day. He is thinking about declaring monsoon end for us in his forecasts while I say August 20th. However, two of his Profs and NAME researchers think there may be a resurgence next month. I'm not so sure and neither is he. As far as Niño is concerned, don't hold your breath. If we DO get a Niño, that will favor another late starting poor monsoon next year.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

It is looking like there may be another resurgence at the end of next week...see my thread in the Tropical forum for details.

[azskyman]

Only one, count 'em, one monsoon rainfall at my station. .95" total since early April.

We were ahead of normal for the year heading into the summer...but lost it along the way. Looked pretty slow down your way, Steve, and obviously nothing much in Pinetop. Snow? Let's hope you get that 200"...but not all at once. What is the average seasonal snowfall in the White Mountains? In Flagstaff?

[Aslkahuna]

Technically, the recurvature of TS remnants into CA is not considered monsoonal unless you actually have true monsoonal (ie E-SE) flow over AZ to the east. In the case you are looking at, the system is being pulled up by a trough in the westerlies which is as far from the monsoon as one can get. Also, to hang one's hat on the GFS at Day 9 without support from other medium range models (which is lacking right now) requires hitting the stash pretty hard to see it come to pass. The GFS has a bad habit of generating storms, both Tropical and otherwise, in the Day10 through 16 timeframe so really needs to be taken with several pounds of salt beyond Day 7. Given the trend this year, it's safe to say that the GFS has been generally overforecasting the monsoon this year. Curiously, NAME found that the NGM performed better in the short term in forecasting monsoonal rainfall.

Steve

[azsnowman]

NWS/FLAG has been toying with the models here, yesterday it was YES on the cyclone, tonight......"ehhhh, MAYBE, COULD BE..WELL, NO!" We'll just have to wait and see!


EXTENDED...MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SEEP OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
NM BORDER STARTING SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERY WEAK
DYNAMICS. WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS OVER THE WHITES. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A DEEP PAC NW TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTH BRINGING A LARGE FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE STARTING ON
THURSDAY. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO JUST YET. FOR NOW WILL
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BY THE LAST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. DF

[azsnowman]

With what sounded like a PROMISING chance of some DECENT rains this weekend, it's NOW a BUST-O-RAMA I haven't had time to do my stats for the month of August but just by calculating in my head, it's gonna the DRIEST August on RECORD, could even be the driest August EVER PERIOD

Dennis

[LAwxrgal]

Hi Dennis, maybe you want all the rain from Frances, the East Coast has been way too wet

[azsnowman]

Hi Dennis, maybe you want all the rain from Frances, the East Coast has been way too wet

Trust me, if I could BUY just SOME of the moisture from Frances, I would GLADY do a 2nd mortage on my HOUSE for Crips Sake.....it's VERY depressing seeing the landscape around us dying, I mean, OLD virgin forests are dying at an alarming rate

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Based upon it's complete disappearance on August 20th, and the absolute failure of anything even remotely resembling a monsoon pattern to return since and the total unlikelihood of it ever doing so, I have declared the monsoon to be over effective 20 August on my web site monthly update. This is the earliest end to the monsoon since I began keeping records and if September continues the trend since August 20th it will also be the driest. I have also posted my first outlook for the 2004-05 Hydrological Year but no one needs to look if they are expecting good news for AZ.

Steve