WNW? More bad news for SFL

[MWatkins]

Ok..I suppose my math is bad...what am I mising?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT1.0409010245

20.8 67.0
to
21.0 67.9

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT1.0409010556

This is not good news at all for residents of the Bahamas and SE Florida.

This is clearly a 3 hour motion of west. At least the pressure isn't down.

MW

[ericinmia]

if you look at the pressure maps i posted a little whil ago.. Frances will have to wait until right off the coast before being able to strengthen to a CAT5.

Thanks for the calcs Mike.
It proves our notions true, sadly.
-Eric

[Dean4Storms]

We need a new direction abbreviation for this, like wwn!

I'm with ya, how do you call that movement wnw?

[jlauderdal]

Ok..I suppose my math is bad...what am I mising?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT1.0409010245

20.8 67.0
to
21.0 67.9

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT1.0409010556

This is not good news at all for residents of the Bahamas and SE Florida.

This is clearly a 3 hour motion of west. At least the pressure isn't down.

MW

you are dead on. woke up 1/2 hour and saw the same thing and that is why i am still up. nhc and models are getting real close to a solution. this is looking central*maybe) south florida storm. it is clearly not gaining enough lat tonight to clear us.

[Rainband]

Reminding me track wise, more and more of Erin

[ColinD]

Ok..I suppose my math is bad...what am I mising?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT1.0409010245

20.8 67.0
to
21.0 67.9

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT1.0409010556

This is not good news at all for residents of the Bahamas and SE Florida.

This is clearly a 3 hour motion of west. At least the pressure isn't down.

MW

you are dead on. woke up 1/2 hour and saw the same thing and that is why i am still up. nhc and models are getting real close to a solution. this is looking central*maybe) south florida storm. it is clearly not gaining enough lat tonight to clear us.

Woke up, still up here too.

[TampaFl]

Same here, awoke @ 3:20AM to see no change in the track forcast. So I am still up,Looks more and more like a Central & South FL. event. Not good. Need coffee

Robert

[soonertwister]

This is clearly bad news folks, as much as I absolutely hate to say it. Right now Frances is at about 21N 68W and clearly not going anywhere near the almost NW movement that would be needed to get the storm back to projected path. With four hours remaining to the next path update, it is becoming increasingly evident that once again Frances is headed south of the forecast.

With this storm currently moving at 15 knots or more, it's getting more and more difficult to ignore the obvious, that there is becoming a fairly high possibility that this storm will not only strike FL, but very possibly make the SoFla hit that so many, including me, dread to imagine.

My heart and prayers go out to all those who are in this storm's path. Please be careful out there!

(Gee, can't Frances just go away and DIE somewhere?)

[Windtalker]

I too agree Mike...The next forcast track will have it south even more next run.

[perk]

Mike you are absolutely right. Frances is back on a due west heading.

[Patrick99]

Even though the official forecast says one thing, I am getting a somewhat squirmy feeling here in Miami. I don't mind hurricane conditions.....in fact, I enjoy hurricanes and think they are awesome things to experience - but that sentiment doesn't extend to the eyewall of a Cat. 5. I don't want to be alarmist, but I really don't see any reason for shock if Frances is a 5 upon arrival, wherever she arrives on the FL coast. I also don't want to beat the "creating its own environment" thing to death - I don't think she's creating her own environment, but she certainly seems to be throwing her weight around.

[jlauderdal]

Even though the official forecast says one thing, I am getting a somewhat squirmy feeling here in Miami. I don't mind hurricane conditions.....in fact, I enjoy hurricanes and think they are awesome things to experience - but that sentiment doesn't extend to the eyewall of a Cat. 5. I don't want to be alarmist, but I really don't see any reason for shock if Frances is a 5 upon arrival, wherever she arrives on the FL coast. I also don't want to beat the "creating its own environment" thing to death - I don't think she's creating her own environment, but she certainly seems to be throwing her weight around.

make your preperations and be ready. this continued wnw movement at this speed is a problem for south florida. expect a model shift to the south at 11 or at least hanging tough with wpb.

[Brent]

The 5am landfall point already seems to be near West Palm Beach and Jupiter Inlet.

The farther south... the sooner the landfall.

[Stormcenter]

Mike you are absolutely right. Frances is back on a due west heading.

Yes I was about to post that. She looks to be back on a due west to slightly north of west track again. She very well maybe a south Florida
event.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[btsgmdad]

I just noticed that too. The board is jamming again beyond capacity.

[x-y-no]

make your preperations and be ready. this continued wnw movement at this speed is a problem for south florida. expect a model shift to the south at 11 or at least hanging tough with wpb.

We won't see new model runs quite that early. The 12Z GFS should start coming out about 1:30, the UKMET a little later.

Actually, I suppose we might be seeing new BAM and LBAR runs - not sure when those are done.

[btsgmdad]

Dont forget the hurricane hunters are making runs today in advance of the storm (can't remember what they called them last night) to help forecast track of the system.

[CaptinCrunch]

Miami to the Key's (CAT 5 160mph at the wall) and then GOM, from there it's anybodys guess.

[dhweather]

The GFS and GFDL just don't seem to have a good grip woth Frances. That's just the nature of the business, there is no "one model fits all"

[rtd2]

CAPTAIN ...I with you on every point but the cat5 160! (wont be much less maybe 145?)