Frances Advisories

[wsquared77]

We live in Homestead too and we have made plans but I haven't heard anything official yet

[StrongWind]

Well then, the Palm Beach Post web leads with:

"Florida on alert
Frances taking aim
at Florida coastline
UPDATE Forecasts continue to shift south, putting Florida dead in the storm's sights. Evacuations could be ordered for Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast today."

[ColinD]

Well then, the Palm Beach Post web leads with:

"Florida on alert
Frances taking aim
at Florida coastline
UPDATE Forecasts continue to shift south, putting Florida dead in the storm's sights. Evacuations could be ordered for Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast today."

There ya go

[hibiscushouse]

Where, exactly, is a safe place in the State of Florida to evacuate to?

[Thunder44]

I don't think the Bahamas would have much if any effects on it. Hispanola, is probably a bigger threat now, because it could disrupt the outflow on the south side of the storm, as it moves north of the island. As for the westerley shear, does that depened on where the storm eventually tracks?

[jlauderdal]

Where, exactly, is a safe place in the State of Florida to evacuate to?

refer to your local govt for that info. if you arent in an evacuation zone than dont evacuate it only makes it more difficult for those that need to go. this is a big storm and we know they change course even at the end so dont try and outguess it.

[Thunder44]

Looks like it now has it going into Georgia by Monday.


http://www.ecmwf.int

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

....geezzzz ...FRANCES GIVE US A BREAK!!

[hibiscushouse]

My point being, landfall seems so uncertain, should people go south, north, west? It seems as though the entire State has the possibility to feel this. I have a BIL across the street from the Atlantic in Delray Beach, a MIL in Naples, and lots of family in Pinellas County. I'm wondering if we should go south, my MIL should go north, and certainly my BIL should go somewhere. ALL of our homes are within blocks of the beach or bay, and in evacuation zones.
What part of the State are you East coasters evacuating to?

[ColinD]

Where, exactly, is a safe place in the State of Florida to evacuate to?

That's what sucks. With the projected path and error evacuating from South Florida doesn't leave many good options. Someone in Miami could evacuate to Orlando and it could be worse. Still, the coastal residents are extremely vulnerable so inland is better. You may see 100mph in Orlando but you won't see 140. Orlando is my plan if I have to leave.

[Tip]

When the most consistent model changes this drastically, you have to wonder whether it is a bad run. The 12z EURO run will be all important to see if this was a hiccup or a trend.

[wxman57]

Remember that it had similar problems with Charley. For a while it was taking Charley west to Houston and stalling it. Looks like the EC is not very trustworthy for tropical systems.

[hurricane_lover]

Its very reliable.

[Thunder44]

Well, this just in the 6z GFS also takes into Georgia too.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif

Actually it seems to skirt the Georgia coast and take towards SC.

[ColinD]

This is going to be a hell of a day.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like it now has it going into Georgia by Monday.


http://www.ecmwf.int

i doubt the system is going to bust through a building high.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

that high is very unstable @ this time....(info from local met)

[SeaBrz_FL]

I am in Brevard County, and Orlando is usually our first choice for evacuation too, but it is a minefield over there right now with tons of leftover debris from Charley everywhere. Stacks of chopped up trees, piles of destroyed aluminum structures, and construction debris line the street curbs and we all know what 100 mph winds will do with that stuff. The breached roofs on many homes and businesses also pose a threat for more flying debris.

Also, nearly every Orlando hotel room is already booked.

[TampaFl]

FLUS42 KMLB 011040
HWOMLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
639 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
011900-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
639 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS TO MOVE WEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A 3 FOOT EAST SWELL AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. REMEMBER TO ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THURSDAY EVENING THEN TRACK TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SATURDAY.
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...
BRINGING ROUGH POUNDING SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS...AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION TO THE COASTLINE.

THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS THE MAJOR HURRICANE ONSHORE CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE MAY
TRACK A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE RIGHT OR LEFT OF THIS TRACK. THUS...
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH.
NONETHELESS...FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS IMPACTS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD. THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO LET YOUR GUARD DOWN OR BE
COMPLACENT. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT PREPARATION TIME BECOMES VERY
LIMITED AS A HURRICANE NEARS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND A PLAN IN PLACE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE BECOMING AN IMMEDIATE THREAT. THIS COULD BECOME A LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO BEGIN
THINKING ABOUT A PLAN AND MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR YOURSELF AND
FAMILY.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...

REVIEW YOUR FAMILY'S HURRICANE PLAN...KNOW YOUR POSSIBLE EVACUATION
ROUTES BEFORE WATCHES OR WARNING ARE RAISED ALONG THE COAST. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR ON THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...MAKE PLANS TO STAY WITH FAMILY...FRIENDS...OR AT A HOTEL
OR SHELTER FOR A FEW DAYS. HAVE A PLAN NOW...DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF
GUARD.

SECURE IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS...GATHER HURRICANE SUPPLIES...MAKE A
CHECKLIST OF PREPARATIONS YOU WILL NEED TO COMPLETE.

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON FRANCES
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

VOLKMER



[jlauderdal]

that high is very unstable @ this time....(info from local met)

who is the local met.

this form this mornings tampa nws afd...doesnt sound like an ustable high to me..sounds like a building high to me.

FIRST...THE REALITY.
WHILE FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A HEARTY CLIP (15 KT)...FASTER
THAN MOST MODELS EARLIER SUGGESTED...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE REMNANT WEAK TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER...A FORMER GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH NOW EDGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST...IS NOT ONLY
TAKING ITS TIME SLIPPING EAST BUT APPEARS TO BE DIGGING AS WELL.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE PLAYERS...AND NOW ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING FRANCES TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IN 72-96H.