Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Wednesday September 1, 2004 5am
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Hurricane Frances has gained strength pressure wise. The pressure is down 4 mb to 935 mb. Winds remain near 140 mph.
The movement is towards the west-northwest at 17 mph. I expect a wobble west, then northwest, west then northwest to continue for the next 72 hours... until landfall. After which, I expect a through to lift Frances to the north. But... where does the trough lift her?Over mainland Florida.... or into the Gulf of Mexico. My track is slightly south of the NHC track and is a little faster.
As for intensity, Hurricane Frances MAY be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. If so, expect a few hours of it staying status quo (WHICH IS NOT GOOD AT ALL) and then beginning to intensify again. I feel that Frances still has the chance to become a category 5 hurricane, but I will not show that happening on my forecast track, instead I will take Frances to a very strong category 4 hurricane until landfall.
NOTE: FRANCES STILL CAN BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
12 HRS-- 21.8N-- 70.6W-- 125 kt
24 HRS-- 22.3N-- 73.9W-- 130 kt
36 HRS-- 23.0N-- 75.6W-- 125 kt
48 HRS-- 24.0N-- 77.5W-- 130 kt
72 HRS-- 25.3N-- 79.5W-- 135 kt
96 HRS-- 27.0N-- 81.3W-- 105 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 28.1N-- 82.0W-- 80 kt (INLAND)
