Frances forecast #18... now into the GOM

[Derek Ortt]

I have seen enough and have discussed this enough to now go with the GOM solution but with a similar EC landfall location as before


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

[rtd2]

I hold all your forecasts in high regard....glad to see your onboard with me and several others. Thanks for the updates....... S.FLA THEN GOMEX!

[Derek Ortt]

graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html


Note, I appoologize if the site is slower than a snail on crutches

[btsgmdad]

Looks like right around the FLA-ALA border.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks Derek for your analysis. If this does pan out and she heads to the panhandle as you have it on the graphics...Do you think Frances will build back up to a major hurricane between the time she exists the west coast of the peninsula and arrives at the panhandle?

[Stormcenter]

I have seen enough and have discussed this enough to now go with the GOM solution but with a similar EC landfall location as before


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

Derek unfortunately I think you "may" need to readjust your
track a little further west based on her latest return to more westerly motion.

[Steve]

Very interesting Derek. Thanks.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

it could become a major again; however, there may be more shear and recovery time may limit it to a cat 2, which can still produce significant damage though

[alicia-w]

Looks like right around the FLA-ALA border.

to me it looks more like somewhere east of FWB...not quite Panama CIty

[Brent]

30.0 N/86.0 W is just offshore Panama City.

[alicia-w]

well okay, the lat/long for my house is N30.29 W 86.26 and I dont live in Panama City...

[Brent]

well okay, the lat/long for my house is N30.29 W 86.26 and I dont live in Panama City...

LOL, I was just using my map with the lat/long on it.

[alicia-w]

did i just show EVERYONE how anal retentive I am? Sorry!!!!

[B-Bear]

did i just show EVERYONE how anal retentive I am? Sorry!!!!

It looks like you're going to have to move a quarter degree in both directions if you want to get directly in front of Frances.

[dwinpcola]

I am here in pensacola area abd have looked at some of the models bring the storm near us . Time will tell. I think we will all know more come thursday/thursday afternoon.

dw

[Derek Ortt]

we weill know a lot more by then for sure.

Of note, the UKMET has a grizzly track, indicating a landfall in Mississippi. If that shifts slightly south, NO could be looking at the unthinkable, a major landfall from the EAST meaning straight into the city without any time for weakening

[SouthernWx]

Derek, I agree 99% with your forecast....except I caution you, a hurricane as large and intense as Frances won't likely weaken that much while crossing the peninsula.

If Frances makes landfall with 125 kt winds....IMO it will still be in the 95-100 kt range as it exits into the GOM. The great Miami hurricane was still a 110 kt cat-3 near Fort Myers...although it was moving faster (17-20 mph) than I anticipate Frances trek across the sunshine state.

I haven't updated my forecast from 10 p.m. last evening (was unable to access Storm2k and post it)...but will try and update this evening; and at the present time, am planning to shift my forecast track slightly to the west (from landfall near PBI to Tampa then inland again near Apalachicola).

[bfez1]

OMG, New Orleans!!!
That is me. Please say it isn't so. We would be an aquarium.

[BayouVenteux]

OMG, New Orleans!!!
That is me. Please say it isn't so. We would be an aquarium.

Cheer up Bfez I just don't see Frances making it this far west. Our local NWS mets keep harping on a weak cold front at the end of the weekend, followed by a stronger one in the Mon/Tue timeframe. IMHO, the eastern Gulf Coast from Pensacola on over and down needs to keep an eye on developments until the curve NW that the NHC is forecasting begins to materialize.

[LilNoles2004]

Derek, I agree 99% with your forecast....except I caution you, a hurricane as large and intense as Frances won't likely weaken that much while crossing the peninsula.

If Frances makes landfall with 125 kt winds....IMO it will still be in the 95-100 kt range as it exits into the GOM. The great Miami hurricane was still a 110 kt cat-3 near Fort Myers...although it was moving faster (17-20 mph) than I anticipate Frances trek across the sunshine state.

I haven't updated my forecast from 10 p.m. last evening (was unable to access Storm2k and post it)...but will try and update this evening; and at the present time, am planning to shift my forecast track slightly to the west (from landfall near PBI to Tampa then inland again near Apalachicola).

::gulp::... SouthernWx, how confident do you feel in your track? I've kept aprised of your forecasts, and you have been pretty consistent... A 95-100 kt storm approaching Apalachicola would be pretty disasterous for us here on the Apalachee Bay.... Storm surge would be a major problem for that type of event (possible major 'Cane entering the Bay from the SE)..