NHC Verifying On Track

[Sanibel]

Like with Charley, NHC is impressing me with a very accurate track forecast so far. The storm is making occasional jogs that hint west, but is correcting in mild stair-steps back to NHC track average WNW. 280-85* average.

This track is right down the latest NHC cone and is sparing the SW Florida coast with every hour. Calls for a west track into Miami become less likely with each rise.

As I see it, the synoptic has solidified and I'm starting to consider a final call on track. The weak stationary trough over the eastern US has jacked west-east. Its southern end has established a terminus near Arkansas. I believe the Bermuda High has stayed steady and is no longer pushing west in front of Frances. Because of this a stable and motion-less synoptic has developed in the west Atlantic over Frances.

Though it is possible an extension of the Bermuda High juts in above Frances, I'm now considering that the SW part of the High is slightly weakening from being too far from the main High and from being slightly eroded by the stationary remnant trough hanging to its north.

It looks like no sudden Andrew turn will happen with this one as the left cone advocates are speculating. The CONUS High above Frances, as seen in the dry air slot behind the weak remnant stationary trough, has served to stabilize the Bermuda High. This High is not pushing enough to connect up to the Bermuda High and send Frances west. The stationary trough weakness is still between it and Frances.

Because of this the Bermuda High will remain in place, but do so in the compromised state I described above. As Frances enters this stable synoptic she'll probably do exactly what she is doing and follow the SW Bermuda High periphery on a mild recurve right into the Florida east coast.

I believe the synoptic is now less complicated than before and NHC has probably pegged this one. People don't trust them because of Andrew, but I think we have a different situation this time...

[kevin]

Sanibel! Glad to see you on storm2k!

[Brent]

Hi Sanibel! Welcome to Storm2k.

[Dan]

Sanibel! Glad to see you on storm2k!

Ditto...good to see someone who dosen't have knee-jerk reactions to every little happening.

[rtd2]

Welcome Sanibel....now flip back over and answer my post on the other forum

[Portastorm]

What? .... Frances has stayed south and further west than NHC or other modeling (for the most part) have thought.

I wouldn't be so quick to diminish the threat to SW Fla.

[x-y-no]

This track is right down the latest NHC cone and is sparing the SW Florida coast with every hour. Calls for a west track into Miami become less likely with each rise.

From your keyboard to God's ear ...

As I see it, the synoptic has solidified and I'm starting to consider a final call on track. The weak stationary trough over the eastern US has jacked west-east. Its southern end has established a terminus near Arkansas. I believe the Bermuda High has stayed steady and is no longer pushing west in front of Frances. Because of this a stable and motion-less synoptic has developed in the west Atlantic over Frances.

Though it is possible an extension of the Bermuda High juts in above Frances, I'm now considering that the SW part of the High is slightly weakening from being too far from the main High and from being slightly eroded by the stationary remnant trough hanging to its north.

Thank you. That's the first coherent explanation I've seen anywhere for why the ridge would be weakening.

It looks like no sudden Andrew turn will happen with this one as the left cone advocates are speculating.

It doesn't take a "sudden Andrew turn" to go to SFL. Andrew was over 4 degrees further north than Frances. All it takes to reach SFL is a failure to turn more northerly (actually, the xtrap still goes through the keys, so a small northerly turn is still neccesary to reach SFL)

The CONUS High above Frances, as seen in the dry air slot behind the weak remnant stationary trough, has served to stabilize the Bermuda High. This High is not pushing enough to connect up to the Bermuda High and send Frances west. The stationary trough weakness is still between it and Frances.

This seems quite plausible.

Because of this the Bermuda High will remain in place, but do so in the compromised state I described above. As Frances enters this stable synoptic she'll probably do exactly what she is doing and follow the SW Bermuda High periphery on a mild recurve right into the Florida east coast.

Is there no possibility that the outflow from Frances will stem the erosion of this periphery? The prediction of this path takes a far finer understanding than I have of just where this periphery will be.

I believe the synoptic is now less complicated than before and NHC has probably pegged this one. People don't trust them because of Andrew, but I think we have a different situation this time...

Who knows ... maybe you're right, but I'm not so sure.

[soonertwister]

It's clear from observing the animation of the forecast graphics that the NHC has consistently been to the right of track with this cane. Every so often they catch up by adjusting to the left, but then they get behind again.

Prepare for another slight adjustment to the left at either 1500 or 2100Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FR ... hics.shtml

[caneman]

Like with Charley, NHC is impressing me with a very accurate track forecast so far. The storm is making occasional jogs that hint west, but is correcting in mild stair-steps back to NHC track average WNW. 280-85* average.

This track is right down the latest NHC cone and is sparing the SW Florida coast with every hour. Calls for a west track into Miami become less likely with each rise.

As I see it, the synoptic has solidified and I'm starting to consider a final call on track. The weak stationary trough over the eastern US has jacked west-east. Its southern end has established a terminus near Arkansas. I believe the Bermuda High has stayed steady and is no longer pushing west in front of Frances. Because of this a stable and motion-less synoptic has developed in the west Atlantic over Frances.

Though it is possible an extension of the Bermuda High juts in above Frances, I'm now considering that the SW part of the High is slightly weakening from being too far from the main High and from being slightly eroded by the stationary remnant trough hanging to its north.

It looks like no sudden Andrew turn will happen with this one as the left cone advocates are speculating. The CONUS High above Frances, as seen in the dry air slot behind the weak remnant stationary trough, has served to stabilize the Bermuda High. This High is not pushing enough to connect up to the Bermuda High and send Frances west. The stationary trough weakness is still between it and Frances.

Because of this the Bermuda High will remain in place, but do so in the compromised state I described above. As Frances enters this stable synoptic she'll probably do exactly what she is doing and follow the SW Bermuda High periphery on a mild recurve right into the Florida east coast.

I believe the synoptic is now less complicated than before and NHC has probably pegged this one. People don't trust them because of Andrew, but I think we have a different situation this time...

Good to see ya here bud.

[Sanibel]

Some points:


First, I was very jumpy when Frances did her first south of west wobbles east of the Leewards. I thought maybe the ridge was really strengthening and was about to go eccentric on a WSW into the Virgins. -Never happened. Frances has shown persistent rises after these west speculations. I also thought she was going to blow her stack monday night - she didn't. She's a "slow-fuse" storm - significant of a massive long-tracker.

Why I believe Frances is not a left-turner is because she has shown steady defiance of serious leftward disobedience. Every time she hints at west she recorrects back to steady WNW. Andrew was more of a frenzied late bloomer - for lack of better terms -. His run-up was mainly as a tropical storm whereas Frances came in heavy and steady from way out by 35W. If you were to compare tracks, Frances has already done her NW rise and resumption west. She is already in the west move under the ridge. This move is not dipping WSW like Andrew but, instead, is showing a steady mild stair-stepping rise.

Because of this I see Frances as a large-mass, classic Florida landfaller. She reminds me of the Okeechobee storm of 1928 that was a serious flooder and life-taker. I can retrieve posts from a week ago saying the same thing out by 35W...

[kevin]

This move is not dipping WSW like Andrew but, instead, is showing a steady mild stair-stepping rise. << Yep. Stairstepping with westward jogs. Those jogs should become fewer. Unlike recurvature we're not expecting a sudden turn, this will be more gradual.

[caneman]

Some points:


First, I was very jumpy when Frances did her first south of west wobbles east of the Leewards. I thought maybe the ridge was really strengthening and was about to go eccentric on a WSW into the Virgins. -Never happened. Frances has shown persistent rises after these west speculations. I also thought she was going to blow her stack monday night - she didn't. She's a "slow-fuse" storm - significant of a massive long-tracker.

Why I believe Frances is not a left-turner is because she has shown steady defiance of serious leftward disobedience. Every time she hints at west she recorrects back to steady WNW. Andrew was more of a frenzied late bloomer - for lack of better terms -. His run-up was mainly as a tropical storm whereas Frances came in heavy and steady from way out by 35W. If you were to compare tracks, Frances has already done her NW rise and resumption west. She is already in the west move under the ridge. This move is not dipping WSW like Andrew but, instead, is showing a steady mild stair-stepping rise.

Because of this I see Frances as a large-mass, classic Florida landfaller. She reminds me of the Okeechobee storm of 1928 that was a serious flooder and life-taker. I can retrieve posts from a week ago saying the same thing out by 35W...

yep, little concerned here too. Think it's going over Okechobee and eventually into and over or darn near close to Tampa . If it moves slow a smaller area will get pounded into submission. If it moves fast, a much larger are will get pounded like Charley only a much wider swath. Pray or weakening.

[jlauderdal]

It's clear from observing the animation of the forecast graphics that the NHC has consistently been to the right of track with this cane. Every so often they catch up by adjusting to the left, but then they get behind again.

Prepare for another slight adjustment to the left at either 1500 or 2100Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FR ... hics.shtml

i concur with your analysis for what its worth. dont thinkt hey want to do anything to drastic now that they are settling in on a solution. a track change to the south would work very well in tandem with hurricane watches for the SE florida coast at 5 pm. watches and shift south will get everyones attention...not implying anything tricky at work here.

[Portastorm]

Sanibel ... good, plausible arguments. My uneducated guess is still Miami/West Palm area for landfall ... but your reasoning sure appears .... um ... reasonable!

[Sanibel]

I'm a notorious leftward puller myself. While NHC has done the typical GFDL east overreaction, Frances has compensated by staying steady WNW as I wrote above.


The best point above is the one that says Frances is still dangerous for a west turn. I agree. The problem with this track is that any variation west has enormous consequences downrange. Especially for me sitting 7 miles out into the Gulf with a 4 foot elevation!

I hope everyone understands that hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable as they read this. However, I don't see Frances paving a path with subsidence because she's a steady roller rather than an outflow shooter. Her hazy eye probably confirms that.

You have to go back to understand this synoptic. I believe Charley blew-out the CONUS and caused the jet to finally lift. Because of this the Bermuda High is slightly further NE than with Charley. Frances' current behavior also reflects that. Perhaps this lifted jet has warmed that CONUS trough a little causing it to be less of a turning feature. This conforms to the stable, lax synoptic I described in the original post...

[Anonymous]

No...the NHC's track has not verified completely at all. Look at these graphics.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1503W5.gif
This track has the storm completely skirting the Bahaman Islands, but then notice the sat loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
This storm will pass over some of the Bahaman islands on this trajected course, and barring a sharp turn to the NW it will pass south of the NHC track.

I dont see any reason why this storm wont impact the area of Florida between Miami and Lake Okechobee.

[Pebbles]

Wonderful post and welcome to storm2k!

[inotherwords]

Here's NOAA's info on the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane. I wonder if it hits there if the levees/dikes can hold, and if not what kind of flooding might be expected, and how extensive. I wonder if many of the people living around the lake are even aware of this as a danger.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#okee

[Rainband]

It's clear from observing the animation of the forecast graphics that the NHC has consistently been to the right of track with this cane. Every so often they catch up by adjusting to the left, but then they get behind again.

Prepare for another slight adjustment to the left at either 1500 or 2100Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FR ... hics.shtml

Say right not left. The forecast speed of this cane is going to make damage unreal if it verifies

[Sanibel]

Something told me not to commit by mentioning the Okeechobee storm. Ha ha ha!


The entry into recurve this morning was obvious to me. It's actually gone sharper into it since. GFDL is verifying now after everybody was hacking on it.

I can't believe anybody was still harboring westward thoughts when I posted this. NHC is verifying on the mark and is now risking being too far left!

The secret to this one was Charley blasting back the jet stream causing the Bermuda High to back NE into the space opened by this lifted jet. It was no longer strong enough to send storms all the way west...