12z runs...

[yoda]

Well... a very interesting beginning to the new model runs from 12z. The ETA at 84 hrs has it over the EC of FLA, but further north...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

The GFS is coming out now, its to 24 hrs...

[Rainband]

that is bascially the track the nhc said

[snoopj]

I was just going to say, that looks a lot like the positions the NHC graphics have, as far as locations.

--snoopj

[yoda]

Hmm well the 12z GFS is up to its usual stuff again...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml

[x-y-no]

Through 48 hours, the 12Z GFS looks very much like the NHC track. ...

Then it heads due north????

What's up with that?


EDIT: OK, maybe my eyes are bad, or I jumped the gun on loading the 54 hour pic - - I don't see it now. :-/

Sorry folks.

[rbaker]

the gfs is out there where the gfdl has been for the life of frances, think its an outlier for now. Lbar has been best with this system so far.

[yoda]

Anyone wish to enlighten me on what the HE!! the GFS is up to?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

[frankthetank]

[Thunder44]

Takes it into South Carolina again.

[tallywx]

How the HE!! is the GFS taking Frances due north DIRECTLY into an omega blocking ridge with its axis over NY directly north of Frances? That's complete lunacy. If anything, an omega ridge with the amplitude of the one the GFS shows would create a westward steering current south of it, a la hurricanes you see in the Pacific that turn west or even WSW. This is bogus.

[yoda]

Compared to 6z, a little slower and further NE through 102hours. And it has stalled at this point. THe s/w in the northern plains is not as amplified, however the vortmax is stronger. What is interesting, is the small trough complex over new england is slower in exiting. That could be what is hendering the WAR from fully building back in over Frances...

At 120 hours out it is now approaching the Savannah area. The ridge is most certainly weaker this run, the trough over SE Canada is exiting slower, and the vortmax over the northern plains is stronger and faster, hower not quite as deep. Basically, Frances aproaches central fla, stalls, and then is picked up by the trough complex over the ohio valley 5 days from now. What this means is battering waves for the SE and Fla coast for a good day or so, before landfall. Is it correct? We shalls see once more guidance comes in this afternoon. The 12z models this afternoon shoud tell the tale IMO...