Uh oh, Frances is going to bomb right before landfall

[logybogy]

We are right now in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle. See the smaller eye wall is collapsing and a new larger eyewall is developing around it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

It'll take about 12-24 hours but once Frances gets that circular shape again it's going to be very close to some 31 degree C water.

I would not be the least surpised to see a Cat 5 Storm hitting Palm Beach County then crossing the state and exiting out of Tampa. That's the way the track seems to be panning out to me.

[Lowpressure]

Your track is too far south.

[logybogy]

No, it's not. The NHC track now hits Vero Beach and has had a rightward bias throughout this storm's history.

I think landfall in Palm Beach County, probably West Palm Beach is where I think things are headed.

[rtd2]

both of you STILL TOO FAR NORTH! should be 145-150 max

[canegrl04]

Staying on a wnw track,yes she will hit the Palm Beach area.Possible Frances will hit cat 5 status just before landfall

[tdess02]

All of you are too far north!
Frances is going to stay on its w-wnw path and strike the SE Florida coastline. From there, she will start to move more NW then North making her second landfall around MS/ALA. You will see the NHC will start moving the track further and further south starting with the 5PM advisory.

[inotherwords]

For those of you who think it will hit farther south, where do you think it will exit in the GOM and why, and at what wind speed?

I am south of Tampa, is why I'm asking.

[CaptinCrunch]

No, it's not. The NHC track now hits Vero Beach and has had a rightward bias throughout this storm's history.

I think landfall in Palm Beach County, probably West Palm Beach is where I think things are headed.

I agree, with the NE ridge still holding strong Frances will not make that forecasted NW turn, she will continue to track W to a slight N of W track and at present speed landfall will be between W Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale around 12pm Friday

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I don't know about most people.......but I personally consider West Palm Beach part of SE FL...

Saying anyone is too far north/south right now is not plausible (unless they are saying Straits of FL or GA/SC)...because it can still strike anywhere between Miami-Dade and Brevard County...even further north towards Volusia.


The shape/size/appearance of this storm greatly reminds me of Floyd in 1999....only this time it won't go north...

[rtd2]

Quote" All of you are too far north!
Frances is going to stay on its w-wnw path and strike the SE Florida coastline. From there, she will start to move more NW then North making her second landfall around MS/ALA. You will see the NHC will start moving the track further and further south starting with the 5PM advisory."




HEY what about me I said (AS have time after time) miami OR KEYS then GOMEX after that I ? where ridge will be and I really dont like your 2nd landfall

[tdess02]

I think the Tampa area stands a pretty good chance of getting the worst of Frances' east side after GOM entry. Im thinking now that she will make second landfall around MS/Alabama, but even it she does go that far west of Tampa, you will still see large effects due to the size of the storm.

[jdt]

A thought regarding intenisity at landfall. This is just a general observation and I hope someone whom has watched this closer and with greater knowledge can comment. It seems Frances is in the middle of another reorginzation period / eye wall replacement cycle. These seem to be happening, again this is a general ob, every 24 hours or so. Each one as lead to little decrease in in strength (per recon / advisories) and only minor changes in overall impressive structure. Following theses cycles the IR images have shown impressive increases in structure and organization in the CDO area along with drops in pressure. And even though no major increase in strenght have been noted as of yet following these cycles it is still a possibility this increase could occur following any future ERC's. So timing them every 24 hours or so generally leds to AM ERC and PM (afternoon into evening) strengthing / improved organization. Thus an early AM landfall might lead to Frances coming ashore during a weaking / ERC phase were as a PM landfall may have her intesifying at landfall. Again a very general Ob and the time of ERC's is not likely to be on an exact or steady schedule. Again comments welcome.

JDT

[PurdueWx80]

Some of the models are hinting at the worst possible scenario - that is a stall along or near the coast and then a slow NNW to N crawl towards GA or SC. The only thing to slow intensity considerably is an eyewall replacement cycle, as outflow will remain excellent and there is VERY warm water over and to the west of teh Bahamas.

[Hyperstorm]

I really doubt she will bomb before landfall regardless of the Gulf Stream. I expect the intensity to be governed by the usual eyewall replacement cycles. It has not intensified dramatically over the past few days with very favorable conditions, thus I see no reason for her to "bomb" just before landfall...

Category 5 in my book is looking less likely as time goes by...

[Rainband]

The forecast slow movement is what bothers me

[Carolinagirl]

You stated that some models are suggesting a slow down and turn into GA/SC. How much confidence do you put in that? I like about 20 miles from the coast in SC and am a Hugo veteran and don't want to panic, but be prepared. Should I be worried? How possible is this scenario to play out. It seems everyone is pretty confident on a FL landfall. Thanks for anyone's input.

[rtd2]

Hyperstorm I agree 100% BUT still a deadly 4

[WeatherEmperor]

Guys guys come on now. You know how terribly wrong it is to focus on the exact center of the storm. Hurricane Frances is a huge storm and nobody should focus on the "dots" of where the hurricane is forecast to go. Keep in mind that according 11am advisory, hurricane force winds extend up to 80 miles and tropical storm force winds extend up to 180 miles so dont pay attention to the center of the storm. Large portions of the florida east coast will be effected regardless of where it makes landfall.

<RICKY>

[kevin]

Rainband, the slow motion forecasted is really disturbing. A whole day over Florida is quite unusual, and with the massive windfield, we're looking at major power outages even far inland. Not going to be the most pleasant weekend.

As for strengthening, I expect Frances to come ashore as a category 4. An eyewall replacement cycle could help, or it could happen before landfall and cause a lot more damage than some might expect.

[debbiet]

Totally agree WeatherEmperor...one has only to look at the devastation in NC, VA, MD and points north from Isabel last year and this year from TS Gaston all the way in Richmond, VA to realize that these storms will have a huge effect regardless of where the eye crosses...and a slow mover is definitely not a good thing!