12z GFS...Another Head Scratcher

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ALhurricane
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12z GFS...Another Head Scratcher

#1 Postby ALhurricane » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:01 pm

First off, the new GFS is too far north in the short term. By 00z tonight, it has Frances at around 22.9n 71.3w. That means it would have to gain a full degree latitude from now until 00z.... not goint to happen with a 280-285 heading.

Secondly, I remain baffled at the GFS first moving the storm north INTO a 589-590 dm ridge. Synoptically, it digs the west coast trough which in turn develops the ridge over the east... with the ridge axis to the west of Frances. This tells me the storm continues WNW.

Third, it stalls the storm off of the east coast...waits for the west coast trough to progress east, then lifts it into GA/SC. I think the stalling concept is absurd given the strength and orientation of the ridge.

Those are my thoughts as to why the 12z GFS is yet again out to lunch.
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tallywx
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#2 Postby tallywx » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:03 pm

Well said.
Last edited by tallywx on Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby tallywx » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:06 pm

Problem is that the 12z NHC models (BAMD, BAMM, etc.) are based off of the GFS, so whatever errors inherent in the GFS will be reflected in those as well.
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x-y-no
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Re: 12z GFS...Another Head Scratcher

#4 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:53 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Secondly, I remain baffled at the GFS first moving the storm north INTO a 589-590 dm ridge. Synoptically, it digs the west coast trough which in turn develops the ridge over the east... with the ridge axis to the west of Frances. This tells me the storm continues WNW.


That's what's been baffling me too. I was hoping one of you pros would tell me it makes perfect sense ...

OH well, thanks anyway. :-)
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