2pm Frances-WNW at 15, 140 mph winds, 941 mb pressure

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 31a

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on September 01, 2004

...Frances nearing the Turk and Caicos Islands...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the turks and caicos
islans and for the southeast and central Bahamas.
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay.

At 2 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located near
latitude 21.8 north...longitude 70.4 west or about 60 miles...
85 km...east-northeast of Grand Turk island and 700 miles...1125
km...east -southeast of the Florida East Coast

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr.
The general track is expected to continue during the next 24 hours
with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On this track...the
core of the hurricane will be passing near or over the Turks
and Caicos Islands later today...and the southeastern Bahamas during
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Frances is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While fluctuations in intensity
are expected during the next 24 hours...Frances could still
intensify a little more before reaching the Hurricane Warning area.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. Grand Turk reported winds of 36 mph...57
km/hr earlier today.

Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
plane earlier today was 941 mb...27.79 inches. A drifting buoy
near the core of Frances reported a minimum pressure of 967 mb...
28.56 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are possible
over the Dominican Republic today.

Large and dangerous waves are possible along the north coast of
Hispaniola...and swells generated by Frances will begin affecting
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States today.

Repeating the 2 PM AST position...21.8 N... 70.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure...941 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

[cycloneye]

Only.1 degree up from 11 AM 21.7 to 21.8 that as I said in another thread is critical.

[Steve H.]

Looks to me like Frances is weakening. Convection is really on the wane since this morning and pressure is up. Let's hope this trend continues!!!!

[Stormcenter]

Looks to me like Frances is weakening. Convection is really on the wane since this morning and pressure is up. Let's hope this trend continues!!!!

If it is it will only be temporary thing.

[KWT]

no it's not a trend,just a EWR.

and sorry to be a bummer but everytime it's gone thourgh one of these it's become stronger then before.

and that seems likely to happen.

[skysummit]

Looks to me like Frances is weakening. Convection is really on the wane since this morning and pressure is up. Let's hope this trend continues!!!!

If it is it will only be temporary thing.

Agree....to me it looks like cloud tops are beginning to cool around the center.

Wasn't she moving around 17, now 15? Is this the beginning of the forecasted slower speed?

[x-y-no]

Only.1 degree up from 11 AM 21.7 to 21.8 that as I said in another thread is critical.

Seems to still be the exact same course she's been on for over 24 hours, and mighty near to the 72 hour average.

W 2 or 3 frames, WNW 2 or 3 frames, W 2 or 3 frames, WNW 2 or 3 frames, W 2 or 3 frames, WNW 2 or 3 frames ...