ERC complete?

[jdt]

Looking at last frame of this loop it seems so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[B-Bear]

Not even close. That's the old eye. The new eye will be quite large.

[jdt]

OK may not be complete but is on the upward swing to completion. Colder cloud tops redeveloping and rapping around the center. I do not expect a significantly larger eye when all is said and done but could be wrong. Of more importance is the 2PM advisory which keeps the winds at 140 w/ only a few mb pressure rise from 11AM. Thus another ERC occurs and intensity changes little during this. Now in reality the true conditions and hour or two ago may have had slightly weaker winds. But I suspect NHC would see this as only temporary and with such a dangerous storm jumping the max winds up and down 5-10mph because of ERC's could lead some to the false impression that Frances was weaking. All and all likely comes ashore plus or minus 10mph of 140mph with the usually higher gusts. A stab at landfall area, Miami to perhaps as far north as KSC.