Timing is everything for landfall intensity...

[Pebbles]

Looking at the current sat loops it looks as though Frances is the process of replacing her inner eyewall with a much larger 2ndary eyewall. Not good news for the Turks and Bahamas Islands who are already beginning to feel her effects. Adding to the concern is the fairly steady pace towards FL. Just how much stronger will Frances get. Personally feel the models are very low on intensity (no surprise there). But the real point is timing....time to finish the eye wall replacement.... and then strengthening. At this point seriously think that this may possibly be the last replacement before landfall as there may not be enough time to begin another. Thoughts?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Also, a tenth of a degree difference in position N/S could mean the difference between landfall in FTL/MIA or landfall in FTP/MEL.

[B-Bear]

Looking at the current sat loops it looks as though Frances is the process of replacing her inner eyewall with a much larger 2ndary eyewall. Not good news for the Turks and Bahamas Islands who are already beginning to feel her effects. Adding to the concern is the fairly steady pace towards FL. Just how much stronger will Frances get. Personally feel the models are very low on intensity (no surprise there). But the real point is timing....time to finish the eye wall replacement.... and then strengthening. At this point seriously think that this may possibly be the last replacement before landfall as there may not be enough time to begin another. Thoughts?

I don't know about that. She's gone through several in the past couple of days already.

[canegrl04]

Well Charley exploded with less than an hour before landfall. By some 20-30 mph

[Hyperstorm]

Well Charley exploded with less than an hour before landfall. By some 20-30 mph

Yeah, it (Charley) bombed right before landfall because there was a trough to its north that aided in the development. Frances will have no troughs to the north to create any kind of baroclinic enhancement. The intensity will most likely be governed by the usual eyewall replacement cycles...

[Pebbles]

Looking at the current sat loops it looks as though Frances is the process of replacing her inner eyewall with a much larger 2ndary eyewall. Not good news for the Turks and Bahamas Islands who are already beginning to feel her effects. Adding to the concern is the fairly steady pace towards FL. Just how much stronger will Frances get. Personally feel the models are very low on intensity (no surprise there). But the real point is timing....time to finish the eye wall replacement.... and then strengthening. At this point seriously think that this may possibly be the last replacement before landfall as there may not be enough time to begin another. Thoughts?

I don't know about that. She's gone through several in the past couple of days already.

several??? I didn't see several? Saw one day before yesterday that left a nice big eye ....when did we have several? Eyewall replacements take time and this one is just starting...wouldn't be surprised if this takes 12 hours at least to do it's thing.

[B-Bear]

Looking at the current sat loops it looks as though Frances is the process of replacing her inner eyewall with a much larger 2ndary eyewall. Not good news for the Turks and Bahamas Islands who are already beginning to feel her effects. Adding to the concern is the fairly steady pace towards FL. Just how much stronger will Frances get. Personally feel the models are very low on intensity (no surprise there). But the real point is timing....time to finish the eye wall replacement.... and then strengthening. At this point seriously think that this may possibly be the last replacement before landfall as there may not be enough time to begin another. Thoughts?

I don't know about that. She's gone through several in the past couple of days already.

several??? I didn't see several? Saw one day before yesterday that left a nice big eye ....when did we have several? Eyewall replacements take time and this one is just starting...wouldn't be surprised if this takes 12 hours at least to do it's thing.

If I recall correctly, she went through 1 the day before yesterday. Then yesterday she went through one, then almost immediately started going through a second one. That makes 3. This one makes four. If I am wrong, somebody please correct me.

[Pebbles]

I don't know about that. She's gone through several in the past couple of days already.[/quote]

several??? I didn't see several? Saw one day before yesterday that left a nice big eye ....when did we have several? Eyewall replacements take time and this one is just starting...wouldn't be surprised if this takes 12 hours at least to do it's thing.[/quote]

If I recall correctly, she went through 1 the day before yesterday. Then yesterday she went through one, then almost immediately started going through a second one. That makes 3. This one makes four. If I am wrong, somebody please correct me.[/quote]
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I will giva ya she completed maybe 2....attempts don't count LOL the only reason I said that was you almost sounded like she was whipping out eye wall replacements every 12 hours or something. I see now that's not what you meant *winks*

That being the case...still all about timeing. Any mets / experienced amatures want to chime in on this?

Christine (remember I smile because I have no idea what's going on!!! )

[B-Bear]

I don't know about that. She's gone through several in the past couple of days already.

several??? I didn't see several? Saw one day before yesterday that left a nice big eye ....when did we have several? Eyewall replacements take time and this one is just starting...wouldn't be surprised if this takes 12 hours at least to do it's thing.

If I recall correctly, she went through 1 the day before yesterday. Then yesterday she went through one, then almost immediately started going through a second one. That makes 3. This one makes four. If I am wrong, somebody please correct me.
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I will giva ya she completed maybe 2....attempts don't count LOL the only reason I said that was you almost sounded like she was whipping out eye wall replacements every 12 hours or something. I see now that's not what you meant *winks*

That being the case...still all about timeing. Any mets / experienced amatures want to chime in on this?

Christine (remember I smile because I have no idea what's going on!!! )

Well, if those numbers are wrong you'll have to get on NHC about it. They called an eye wall recyling yesterday from the air--the hurricane hunter did. After that eye wall cycle was supposedly complete, she then went through another cycle and that's when the huge 40 nm eye emerged. But she has had a strange eye for the past 2 days. As soon as she develops a new eye, a concentric eye seems to form almost immediately and compete with the inner eye. This morning, for example, the hurricane hunter found that the outter wall had higher wind speeds than the inner eye wall. They therefore forecast yet another eye wall replacement cycle to take place, and that appears to be happening now. For whatever reason, she is going through a lot of replacement cycles in a relatively short amount of time, and, with better conditions for intensity development looming just to her NW, I see no reason why she will alter this trend. So I expect perhaps a couple more eye wall replacement cycles before landfall.

[Pebbles]

You know...I find this very interesting and a great learning opportunity. Saving this thread in my favorites and maybe we can compare notes later on it. You say a couple more after this one...I say 'possibly' one more after this one. Sound good?

[B-Bear]

You know...I find this very interesting and a great learning opportunity. Saving this thread in my favorites and maybe we can compare notes later on it. You say a couple more after this one...I say 'possibly' one more after this one. Sound good?

Fair enough. Mark me down for 2 more.