Slower motion and more NW turn beginning...

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Hyperstorm
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Slower motion and more NW turn beginning...

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:17 pm

I would say this could be the saving grace for extreme southern Florida. Latest satellite images indicate a slowing down and more NW turn beginning. If this continues to verify, then we can predict the track will be central Florida. Let's continue monitoring the possible beginnings of the turn...
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:17 pm

Thanks for the info hyper.. Link please
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#3 Postby B-Bear » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:20 pm

Yes, a link would be helpful. I'm looking at GOES and I'm not seeing anything like that yet.
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chadtm80

#4 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:21 pm

nope.. Still DEAD on NHC track
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#5 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:21 pm

You will need to have your eyes sharped in order to see this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#6 Postby mascpa » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:22 pm

Sorry but I just don't see it. She is slowig ever so slightly but I see absolutely no evidence of a NW turn.
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Josephine96

#7 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:23 pm

LOL Gee thanks for the bit of focus lol
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#8 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:23 pm

BTW, it's NOT a pure 315 degree turn, but a more 295 degree turn. Let's see if it holds because at the same time it is doing that, it can veer back toward the west...

Even if it isn't the FINAL turn toward the NW, it's a sign that all that energy will soon be transfered toward the NW in a matter of time. NW wobbles were NOT seen earlier, thus indicating that the hurricane is "preparing" itself for the turn...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#9 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:23 pm

Just in case somebody opens their mouth. This is not a wishcast. This is what I see at this point, and I've been pretty accurate on the past in terms of satellite observations...
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golter

#10 Postby golter » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:24 pm

I would say its real close to track, if NW jog continues it could move track a little north... Not long enough trend, though. I would still put overall direction at 295....
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#11 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:24 pm

it's a WOBBLE folks, just a tiny wobble :0
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dennis1x1

#12 Postby dennis1x1 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:24 pm

heres one: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

but any satellite will work....

definitely a substantial northerly component becoming evident......also not looking extremely healthy at this point....eye may be filled in soon.
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#13 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:25 pm

Hyper...yes I see a a little turn the last few frames....not totally NW yet and a little north of WNW if that makes sence...anyway, i can see what your seeing..its as plain as the nose on our faces
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Josephine96

#14 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:25 pm

It's probably just another ERC
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#15 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:25 pm

Eyewall replacement time again
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Josephine96

#16 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:26 pm

It's probably just another ERC
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#17 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:27 pm

I think its just sticking at 280 with wobbles and ERC
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#18 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:28 pm

Good catch hyper,

I noticed the slight jog, we'll need a nother froame or two to tell if it's anything more than a jog. Also, check the shear and larger WV loop and it looks like the ridge is weaking which may be the reason, like you said we'll see if it verifes.

SF, don't let down your guard.
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Josephine96

#19 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:29 pm

Central Florida's guard is definitely up here.. Brevard County already making people leave
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#20 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:34 pm

Sheesh ... here we go with the wobble-watching again.

Go to the floater loop, check the forecast points checkbox and single-step the last few frames. The eye is slightly south of the forecast track. The last three frames (1 1/2 hour) have a WNW wobble. That's all. If she keeps moving in the direction of this wobble, she'll make the next forecast point. But why assume that this WNW wobble is any different than the previous 50 wobbles?

Averaged over the whole loop, the course is the same as it has been for a day and a half now.
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