Is the GFDL really that reliable?

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logybogy

Is the GFDL really that reliable?

#1 Postby logybogy » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:43 pm

Hasn't it been a rightward outlier the entire history of Frances? This is disconcerting that the NHC might place so much emphasis on one model with a sketchy track record at best. Very disconcerting.
Last edited by logybogy on Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby dennis1x1 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:46 pm

the gfdl is a reliable model according the the nhc.....and they are actually discounting it in their forecasts...not placing emphasis on it.

its been consistently showing a thursday turn for days. very interesting
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#3 Postby Pebbles » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:47 pm

Usually the NHC does rely on it..but that have totally ignored a couple of runs from it and stated so in those discussions they did. Been kinda wacked a few times with this storm.
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#4 Postby Guest » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:48 pm

i am alittle puzzle also I looked at the gfdl a few days ago and it showed the storm right on top where i live here in NC so now I am concern. of course it would have to really start moving north now for that to happen i would guess?,
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#5 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:56 pm

But Avila, in his 5pm discussion, cites the reliability of the GFDL as one of the reasons he wanted to shift the track of Frances.

BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE
FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:00 pm

The GFDL is very good INSIDE of 60-72 hours on track, but afterwards ... that reliability goes down faster than a large pizza on my hungry stomach ...

SF
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#7 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:03 pm

This is the problem they're having. The GFDL hasn't waivered in it's forecast and we're closing in on that 60-72 hour window now. Satellite imagery is showing a wobble to the northwest now as well. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
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#8 Postby CFL » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:05 pm

It doesn't seem that GFDL has done all that well with this storm.
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#9 Postby Guest » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:05 pm

So Stormfury (love your site by the way,) Do we here in SC/NC need to worry? This is driving everyone nuts and the stress has to be something else. Do we need to worry ?The GFDL i have been looking at for several days has it right on top of where i live is this something that i should take to the bank?
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:17 pm

IMAGINE *IT* wrote:So Stormfury (love your site by the way,) Do we here in SC/NC need to worry? This is driving everyone nuts and the stress has to be something else. Do we need to worry ?The GFDL i have been looking at for several days has it right on top of where i live is this something that i should take to the bank?


NC doesn't need to worry about a direct strike (Landfall) ... not right now, anyway ... and probably neither does South Carolina ... at this time ...

HOWEVER ... let's quantify this ...

The circulation envelope is very large and also will be pinched in between a very large high and the pressure gradient between Frances and the massive high would spread a large swath of up to tropical storm force winds well away from the center, one ... and secondly, with a NW movement, the bands that line up parallel to Frances' movement on the northeastern side could likely have those bands produce a ton of rainfall in a small swath (much like what we saw in Richmond, VA with Gaston's NE movement) ... and also a tornado threat ... (NE side, favorable windshear profiles) ...

Right now, my best estimate or window lies from Central to NE Florida (specifically from WPB to JAX) ...

SF
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