AVILA HINTING>>>>>>>>

[bobbisboy]

The NHC will not make a definitive call sooner than it has to but the 5PM discussion certainly makes clear they are likely to move the track further up the Florida coast. Given FRANCES'S movement over the last few hours, I would say this is HIGHLY likely at 11PM. We'll see and everyone who even MIGHT be affected should have preliminary preperations done. This is not one to fool with.

HOW FAR WEST
THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL
CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD
EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...

[Pebbles]

I think they are hesitent to do a major shift this close to land....personally don't see it happening..but waiting to see next models/advisories.

[Guest]

What can that mean here in NC where i am about 30 minutes from the SC/NC border and an hour from the coast? That GFDL he mentioned i have been looking at for several days and it had this storm right here where i live? i started feeling a relief and not worry too much but i don't know now !

[Wannabewxman79]

Probably alot of rain but that is it......

[x-y-no]

Yes, he's hinting at that allright.

I just wish I could understand the reasoning better.

[Thunder44]

Avila loves that GFS

[Bane]

The reasoning is that the high will weaken much more than some of the other models are saying. GFS and GFDL have been consistent in saying this. That is what is making those guys at the NHC sweat.

[Jevo]

Grrrrrrr

Avila is both a glue sniffer and a Model homer...

All of his forecasts have been north of allll of the other mets in the office. He uses not synoptic thinking in his discussions and goes against all rational thinking of Pasch, Stewart, and Beven...

Point in fact from Bevens discussion today

THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A UNREALISTIC LOOKING MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

Ill wait for a REAL discussion at 11

[Myersgirl]

Jevo, I am with you!!!

[Brent]

I don't like Avila either. ARGH...

[cebers01]

Well, we are now getting into the window for GFDL and GFS to become more accurate... Remember beyond 72 hours the models all have issues working with a weakening ridge... But the consensus may all shift east/north once the new runs come out...

[hurricane_lover]

I swear I think you guys in Florida want this storm.

[Downdraft]

Good point Hurricane-lover. If S. Florida wants it so bad I say let em have it. I'm in Central Florida and want no part of it.

[millibar]

...we don'i want it up here, either!
Hope the GFS/GFDL and Avila are WRONG (but I still don't think so )!!

Best regards to all...hope Miss Frances misses EVERYONE!! Godspeed to those she doesn't...thinking of you...

Millibar

[calidoug]

This from hurricane_lover ??? The one posting "This is a carolina storm" over and over again for the past 2 days??

[otowntiger]

You're cracking me up! Your name alone obviously implies that you want this storm! Every time I peek at this board it seems you're the one making some big claims that it is heading your way. Well you can have it buddy! BTW, everytime there is the slightest bump north in models or tracking all of the other wischcasters up there begin to salivate. Its like the flies that swarmed around my gabage can last week after I had to empty my fridge after going 6 days w/o power, complements of Charley.
.

I swear I think you guys in Florida want this storm

[dekeoy]

I'm with you millibar. Definately don't want that here or anywhere for that matter. Unfortunately, someones gonna tote an A** whipping.

[hurricane_lover]

I live in Miami, so your theory makes no sense. I keep predicting a Carolina event because I feel strongly about that. The northern jog is or will happen.

[nomolos]

i dont think that we want it in Florida. But their is no way the storm is gonna go away based on you keep saying it will turn north and hit s.c. without anything to back this up??

[millibar]

...and gimme a break, PLEASE?? This is why I usually stay a "lurker" and seldom post. The only "salivating" I do is in front of a good fish steak! There seems to be two schools of thought concerning the future track of Madam Frances, and you and I happen to have different views, okay? Avila has stated my position in the 5PM discussion, as I posted a couple of days ago. I do hope this view is wrong and Frances doesn't come up the coast, but at the same time I hope nobody comes to harm from this system. Unfortunately, someone's gonna get slammed.
On summary, I have no axe to grind if my school of thought is totally wrong! Sooo, maybe I'll just go back to being a "lurker" again for awhile, and read and enjoy the posts without the tempers...sheesh!!

Regards,
Millibar