5 p.m. forecast... little stronger in GOM

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Derek Ortt

5 p.m. forecast... little stronger in GOM

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:13 pm

the only significant change needed since the models are out to lunch is a slightly stronger GOM storm and a final landfall slightly farther west

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html
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Brent
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#2 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:21 pm

I don't like it. :eek:
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CaneCurious
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#3 Postby CaneCurious » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:22 pm

How much farther west?
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:23 pm

the 72 hour point should have read 81.7 not 82.7. thats been corrected now
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#5 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:27 pm

CaneCurious wrote:How much farther west?


120 hour position looks to be near Pensacola.
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rainstorm

#6 Postby rainstorm » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:28 pm

why are the models out to lunch, derek? underestimating the ridge?
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:38 pm

the ridge in the GFS does not match up at all with the observations
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golter

#8 Postby golter » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:41 pm

To me you appear to be off the mark west... My untrained eye sees the ridge weakening. See link: http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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Derek Ortt

#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:18 pm

we just compared the 12Z obs to the 12Z model. The model is too weak
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c5Camille

#10 Postby c5Camille » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:46 pm

derek... model too weak? please explain... thanks!
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#11 Postby CFL » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:00 pm

Wow. :eek: As much as I don't like to hear this it makes sense to me.
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#12 Postby rainstorm » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:04 pm

i am scared to death.
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#13 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:07 pm

Imagine the panic if Frances enters the gulf at a relatively low latitude..south of tampa. Gives me chills thinking about where this thing is gonna go.
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Derek Ortt

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:14 pm

an ob from 12Z showed a 500mb height of 5340m while the model only has 5330
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#15 Postby Troi » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:22 pm

rainstorm wrote:i am scared to death.



Me too. :cry:
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